As Republican convention begins, ‘the vibe is grim’ for Democrats

MILWAUKEE – As the Republican convention opens on July 15, Democrats find themselves in a state of suspended animation and dread that the election could be tilting further away from President Joe Biden.

While there have been no new public calls from congressional Democrats for Mr Biden to drop out since the

assassination attempt on former president Donald Trump,

many in the party maintain grave concerns about the President’s ability to win. They are now divided over how to proceed with a weakened leader in a scrambled political environment, according to interviews on July 14 and 15 with 15 Democratic lawmakers, strategists and activists.

The last three weeks have been a cascade of fast-moving and damaging events for Mr Biden.

His

awful debate performance

set off rounds of Democratic second-guessing about whether he was their best hope to avert a second Trump administration, with some worrying that he might not only lose, but also take many congressional Democrats down with him.

The shooting on July 13 complicated what Mr Biden’s campaign believes is one of its most potent campaign messages: that Trump poses an immediate and active threat to US democracy. Trump’s in-the-moment response – the raised fist and bloodied face that instantly became a defining image – sent Democrats into yet another tailspin.

And then, as if the Democratic mood were not sour enough, on the morning of July 15, Judge Aileen Cannon dismissed the documents case against Trump in Florida, removing a major legal threat.

“The vibe is grim,” said Mr Matt Bennett, the co-founder of Third Way, a Democratic think-tank that has backed Mr Biden for years. “I haven’t talked to a single Democrat who is like, ‘Things are fine’. It’s universal.”

For months, the Biden campaign has argued that its best shot at re-election was to make the race a referendum on Trump. Now, with the opening of the Republican National Convention and Trump’s selection of Mr J.D. Vance, the junior senator from Ohio, as his running mate, Democrats will finally have that direct contrast.

Many worry that it might not be all that good for Mr Biden.

Much may depend on how Trump and Republicans conduct themselves during their convention. Campaign aides have encouraged speakers to avoid overheated language and to focus on unifying the country after an unsettling moment of violence.

Mr Biden’s aides have no intention of ceding the week to Republicans. They have planned a robust schedule of counter-messaging, dispatching surrogates to Milwaukee to make Mr Biden’s case. After the shooting, Mr Biden cancelled a speech planned for July 15 in Austin, Texas, and his campaign said it would pull down its advertising.

But on July 16, he and his team will restart their political activities, according to two Biden campaign aides who asked for anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. Mr Biden will speak at conventions for the National Association for the Advancement of Coloured People and UnidosUS this week in Las Vegas, attempts to reach key elements of the Democratic coalition in a battleground state.

Some Democrats are more than ready to put the post-debate drama behind them.

“It’s been hysteria on steroids,” said Ms Donna Brazile, a former chair of the Democratic National Committee. “I hope every donor, every supporter, everybody who has seen Joe Biden fight the last 2½ weeks understands and appreciates that we have put so much on his strong, steel shoulders.”

She added: “If he is not going to buckle under the weight of what has happened over the last 2½ weeks, I don’t know why anyone else should.”

In a moment of national crisis, Mr Biden is expected to emphasise his reputation as a bridge builder and unifier – part of the message that helped him win in 2020. Voters see him as a more unifying figure than Trump, a New York Times/Siena College poll found in April. The Biden campaign and its allies will also try to draw a contrast with Republicans whom they see as making divisive statements about the assassination attempt, one of the Biden aides said.

“President Biden brings a sense of decency, of civility and respect for those he disagrees with,” said Representative Ro Khanna of California, an ally of the Biden campaign. “This moment calls for a leader who can summon the better angels of our nature.”

That plan has done little to reassure many Democratic strategists, lawmakers and party officials, who say their mood ranges from panic to resignation.

One Democratic strategist in regular touch with donors, who insisted on anonymity to avoid damaging his relationship with them, said that many believed a race that the debate had made even more difficult had now been placed out of reach by the attempt on Trump’s life. Some, the strategist said, are talking about redirecting their money to congressional races and abandoning the presidential contest.

Not everyone is giving up. Mr Aaron Regunberg, an organiser with Pass the Torch – a Democratic group pressing for a different nominee – said in an interview that there was still time to make a change.

The events of the weekend, he said, only underscored the need for the strongest nominee possible.

“We have a chance to avert catastrophe, and any Democratic leader who understands this reality should be stepping up and speaking out,” said Mr Regunberg, a former state representative from Rhode Island.

He added: “If this all goes the way it looks like it will, the dividing line in Democratic politics moving forward is going to be, did you have the sense and courage to try to push for change while we had a chance?” NYTIMES