Annual US intelligence report sees growing spectre of great power competition, conflict

The report stated that the US would face an "increasingly complex" global security environment. PHOTO: NYTIMES

WASHINGTON (BLOOMBERG) - China is developing one of the greatest nuclear weapons forces in history while Russia will exploit every opportunity to undermine the United States and its allies, according to the annual threat assessment by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence.

In a stark, declassified 31-page document, the report released late Monday (March 7) by the House Intelligence Committee says Iran will continue to threaten American interests as it seeks to erode US influence in the Middle East.

At the same time, North Korea is committed to expanding its nuclear arsenal and ballistic missile development, according to the assessment.

"In the coming year, the United States and its allies will face an increasingly complex and interconnected global security environment marked by the growing spectre of great power competition and conflict, while collective, transnational threats to all nations and actors compete for our attention and finite resources," the document stated.

The nation's top intelligence chiefs will present - and expand upon - the assessment when they testify before the House committee on Tuesday.

Speakers will include Mr Avril Haines, director of national intelligence; Central Intelligence Agency chief William Burns; General Paul Nakasone, head of the National Security Agency; and Federal Bureau of Investigation Director Christopher Wray.

The annual assessment represents a consensus among the nation's 17 intelligence agencies of major threats confronting the US, and is used by lawmakers and policy makers as a baseline to make critical decisions, advance legislation and craft budgets.


As the report was written before Russia's attack on Ukraine, US intelligence chiefs are sure to be pressed on the latest developments. PHOTO: REUTERS

The assessment is dated as it was written before Russia invaded Ukraine last month and was based on information available as of Jan 21.

Lawmakers are certain to press the intelligence chiefs for the most current assessments and implications of Russia's invasion during Tuesday's hearing.

Still, the assessment warns that Russia is determined to "dominate Ukraine and other countries" in the near term, while not wanting a direct conflict with American forces.

"We assess that Moscow will continue to employ an array of tools to advance its own interests or undermine the interests of the United States and its allies," the threat assessment report said.

"We expect Moscow to insert itself into crises when Russia's interests are at stake, the anticipated costs of action are low, or it sees an opportunity to capitalise on a power vacuum."

The intelligence agencies assess that the Wagner Group and other private security companies managed by Russians close to the Kremlin "extend Moscow's military reach at low cost in areas ranging from Syria to the Central African Republic and Mali, allowing Russia to disavow its involvement and distance itself from battlefield casualties".


The report identifies China as the "top threat" to US technological competitiveness and influence. PHOTO: REUTERS

The Chinese Communist Party, on the other hand, "will work to press Taiwan on unification, undercut US influence, drive wedges between Washington and its partners, and foster some norms that favour its authoritarian system", according to the document.

China "will continue the largest ever nuclear force expansion and arsenal diversification in its history", as Beijing isn't "interested in agreements that restrict its plans and will not agree to negotiations that lock in US or Russian advantages", the document stated.

China's efforts to control Taiwan - which Beijing claims as its territory - will probably ensure more disruptions to the global supply chains for semiconductor chips.

"China will remain the top threat to US technological competitiveness as Beijing targets key sectors and proprietary commercial and military technology from US and allied companies and institutions", the report said.

And China "almost certainly is capable of launching cyber attacks that would disrupt critical infrastructure services within the United States, including against oil and gas pipelines and rail systems".

The report disclosed that when it was launched by China last year, a hypersonic weapon designed to evade US defences "flew completely around the world and impacted inside China".

The US originally labelled all details of the test highly classified.


While Iran is not currently undertaking key nuclear weapons-development activities that would be necessary to produce a nuclear device, if Teheran doesn't receive sanctions relief, officials probably will consider further enriching uranium up to 90 per cent.

Negotiations to revive a 2015 nuclear accord with Iran are believed to be in their final stages at talks in Vienna.

North Korea

North Korea is theorised to continue missile tests and build a force to evade US missile defences. PHOTO: KCNA/AFP

North Korea remains strongly committed to expanding its nuclear weapons arsenal and continuing ballistic missile research and development.

"North Korea's continued development of ICBMs, IRBMs, and SLBMs demonstrates its intention to bolster its nuclear delivery capability," the report said.

The North Korean regime "is continuing to prioritise efforts to build an increasingly capable missile force designed to evade US and regional missile defences".

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un "probably will continue to order missile tests", including of short-range ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and hypersonic glide vehicles "to validate technical objectives, reinforce deterrence, and normalise Pyongyang's missile testing".

North Korea's "cyber programme poses a sophisticated and agile espionage, cybercrime, and attack threat" and "is well positioned to conduct surprise cyber attacks given its stealth and history of bold action".

North Korea also "probably possesses the expertise to cause temporary, limited disruptions of some critical infrastructure networks and disrupt business networks in the United States".

Terrorist groups

The terrorist groups Islamic State of Iraq and Syria and Al-Qaeda "will take advantage of weak governance" in Afghanistan "to continue to plot terrorist attacks against US persons and interests, including to varying degrees in the United States, and exacerbate instability in regions such as Africa and the Middle East" the assessment states.

Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.