Americans are stocking up, anticipating pain from a volatile trade policy

WASHINGTON – Ms Emily Moen, a coffee shop manager in Omaha, Nebraska, was scrolling through TikTok this past week when she came across a video informing her that President Donald Trump’s tariffs could lead to higher prices for essential baby products.

Ms Moen, who is pregnant, said she had not planned to buy a car seat soon. But after watching the video, she researched one made by Graco that she had been eyeing, and learnt that it was made in China. Worried that the US$200 (S$264) seat could get even more expensive, she bought it on Amazon.

“It was like an awakening to get this done now,” said Ms Moen, 29.

As the Trump administration’s trade war with China escalates, many consumers have raced to purchase foreign-made products out of fear that companies could start to raise prices soon. Some have rushed to buy big-ticket items such as iPhones and refrigerators. Others have hurriedly placed orders for cheap goods from Chinese e-commerce platforms.

The White House this past week imposed

a minimum tariff rate of 145 per cent on all Chinese imports to the United States,

on top of other previously announced levies, including a 25 per cent tariff on steel, aluminium, cars and car parts.

And in April, Mr Trump ordered the end of a loophole that allowed goods from China worth less than US$800 to enter the United States without tariffs.

Early data shows that consumers flocked to stores and stocked up on goods after the administration announced sweeping tariffs on nearly all trading partners. Mr Trump backed down on some threats this past week and instituted a 90-day pause on more punishing levies. But he said the halt would not apply to China, and he instead raised tariffs again on all Chinese goods.

Then the administration issued another reprieve. Late on April 11, it announced a new rule that appeared to spare smartphones, computers and other electronics from most of the new fees.

China is the second-largest source of US imports, and makes the bulk of the world’s cellphones, computers and toys.

According to Earnest Analytics, a firm that analyses data on millions of debit and credit card payments, consumer spending at Apple was up 20 per cent between April 2 and April 7, compared with average spending there in recent months. Spending was also up 10 per cent at Home Depot, and 18 per cent at department store chain Belk, according to the analysis.

Consumers have also raced to grocery stores, large discount chains and car dealerships in recent days. Purchases of shelf-stable goods surged in the five days following Mr Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2, with sales of canned and jarred vegetables up 23 per cent, sales of instant coffee up 20 per cent, and ketchup sales up 16 per cent compared with the same period the week before, according to data from Consumer Edge, a company that tracks consumer behaviour.

Although some consumers have been more strategic with their purchases, others might be stockpiling because of uncertainty about which products will be affected by tariffs, and whether companies will raise prices, analysts said.

Before

Mr Trump exempted many electronics

from most of the new tariffs, the threat of higher prices prompted many consumers to buy electronics, particularly iPhones.

Apple makes roughly 80 per cent of its iPhones in China, according to Counterpoint Research, a technology research firm. The exemptions for reciprocal tariffs that the Trump administration issued on April 11 for certain electronics did not appear to apply to an earlier round of levies it had imposed on China, in which the administration had applied a tariff of 20 per cent on Chinese goods for its role in supplying fentanyl to the United States.

Mr Tom Barnard, 49, a university marketing director in Waco, Texas, said he helped his mother buy a new iPhone 16 on April 11. He said his mother would have waited for the newest model to come out but that he thought it was wiser to make the purchase now, in case Apple increased prices later in 2025.

“I think we’re going to be in a trade war with China until at least through the end of the year,” he said.

Mr Barnard said he and his wife also spent around US$650 at Walmart last weekend, in large part because they were concerned that tariffs could raise grocery costs.

Some parents have even debated buying Christmas gifts eight months early to stave off higher prices. In Facebook groups and on message boards dedicated to families, parents debated what to buy, given the attention span of toddlers. Parents asked one another if their children would still be interested in narwhal or unicorn toys at the end of the year, or if it was better to go for a more standard gift, such as Lego sets.

Other consumers have been preparing for the possibility of higher prices for months. Ms Bree Chaudoin, 47, a lending support specialist in Normal, Illinois, said she upgraded her iPhone shortly after Mr Trump was elected in November, out of concern that prices could rise if he imposed new tariffs. She said that she also started saving up for new camping gear in late-2024.

About a month ago, Ms Chaudoin purchased a US$1,500 rooftop tent for her car that appeared to have been made in China. She also ordered a new water tank, camping lanterns and fire tongs from Temu and AliExpress, popular e-commerce platforms which have Chinese owners.

Ms Chaudoin said she typically tries to buy as many American products as she can. But a similar water tank produced domestically, she added, would have cost at least US$120 more.

“I have a very tight budget,” she said. “When they sell these products that are such high quality and for a less amount of money, it just didn’t make sense to me to buy them anywhere else.”

Even though the recent surge in sales has provided a boon for some companies, retail analysts said that firms appeared to be more concerned about consumers pulling back on spending. Wall Street economists have lowered their forecasts for growth and warned about a potential recession amid a global trade war. Consumer sentiment has also tumbled as households grow more anxious about inflation.

“When I talk to companies, they’re more worried that people are not going to buy,” said Mr Simeon Siegel, a retail analyst at the investment bank BMO Capital Markets. NYTIMES