75 per cent chance of ‘historic’ El Nino this year: US agency
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People caught in a rain storm in New York in August 2026. The risk of extreme weather increases under El Nino conditions.
PHOTO: JUSTIN LANE/NYTIMES
- The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reports a 75% chance of a historic El Nino event in late 2026, surpassing previous events since 1950.
- El Nino is causing record-high Pacific sea temperatures, disrupting global weather patterns and increasing the risk of droughts, shifting rainfall, and extreme conditions worldwide.
- This strong El Nino will likely boost global temperatures, possibly making 2026 or 2027 the hottest years on record, compounding long-term climate change effects.
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WASHINGTON - The US weather agency said on Sept 10 that the El Nino pattern in the Pacific was strengthening and there was a 75 per cent chance it would reach “historic” intensity this year.
Forecasters have been tracking an exceptional El Nino this year as the climate phenomenon has gained pace, driving tropical Pacific sea temperatures to record highs.
Scientists are increasingly confident this “super” El Nino could exceed any in the modern era, with potentially damaging knock-on impacts around the globe.
In its latest El Nino assessment, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the odds of a history-making event had increased since its last report a month ago.
“During the October-December 2026 season, there is a 75 per cent chance of a historic event that would exceed the strength of previous El Nino events dating back to 1950,” it said.
In August, confidence was 69 per cent.
El Nino is the warm phase of a natural climate cycle that occurs every two to seven years and is characterised by above average ocean temperatures across the Pacific.
Sea surface temperatures have reached record highs in the tropical Pacific in recent months and NOAA said some areas of deeper water were more than 10 deg C above average.
El Nino episodes alter winds, air pressure and cloud patterns, reshaping weather and raising the odds of extreme conditions thousands of miles away.
Major El Nino events often produce drought across parts of the Amazon, Indonesia and Australia, a disrupted Indian monsoon and shifting rainfall in the tropics.
“With an event of this magnitude, the chances of experiencing impacts consistent with El Nino are larger, though not guaranteed,” NOAA said.
The EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service said on Sept 10 its latest El Nino forecast “favours further strengthening, in oceanic indices, until the end of the calendar year, after which uncertainty in prediction increases.”
The Copernicus outlook combines El Nino predictions from nine of the world’s leading meteorological centres into a single forecast.
El Nino also temporarily boosts global temperatures, compounding the long-term warming caused by climate change and increasing the risk of extreme weather.
Scientists interviewed by AFP say 2027 is almost certain to set a global temperature record but 2026 is fast becoming a serious contender as El Nino strengthens. AFP