UN warns of collateral hunger worldwide

GENEVA • Ukraine's food supply chain is "falling apart" amid the Russian invasion, and the disruption of food supplies within the country is threatening crucial exports of grain that could undermine global food security, the United Nations said.

The World Food Programme said it has mobilised food supplies for around three million people caught in areas of heavy fighting, but that it will need US$590 million (S$800 million) to fund its operation for four months.

"The consequences of this conflict in Ukraine are radiating outwards, triggering a wave of collateral hunger across the globe," Mr Jakob Kern, the organisation's operations director, told reporters. "Ukraine is a catastrophe compounding what is already a year of catastrophic hunger."

Russia and Ukraine account for nearly 30 per cent of the world's wheat trade, he said, and the interruption of those exports is driving up prices to levels beyond the reach of millions of poor people.

The price of wheat has jumped nearly a quarter since Feb 21, Mr Kern said. That has pushed the World Food Programme's monthly food bill up by about US$70 million, a sum that would allow it to support four million people. "That's four million people less receiving food," he said.

In particular, he noted Lebanon, which gets more than 60 per cent of its wheat from Ukraine, among the Middle Eastern countries heavily dependent on Ukrainian grain supplies and stand to be heavily affected by the war's fallout.

Massive price spikes for food and energy sparked by Russia's invasion will push more than 40 million people into extreme poverty, the Centre for Global Development (CGDEV) said on Friday, warning against export curbs and sanctions on Russian food production.

In an analysis blog, the Washington-based think-tank said food commodity prices since the start of the conflict have risen above levels seen during price spikes in 2007 and 2010. It cited World Bank Research showing the 2007 spike may have pushed as many as 155 million people into extreme poverty, and separate research showing the 2010 episode pushed 44 million into extreme poverty.

"Price increases seen to date are already of a similar magnitude to the 2010 increases, and our analysis suggests at least 40 million people will be pushed into extreme poverty by the 2022 price spike," CGDEV researchers wrote.

The World Bank defines extreme poverty as living on less than US$1.90 a day.

The researchers said the most immediate concern was for direct wheat customers of Ukraine and Russia. These include Egypt, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan, Azerbaijan and Turkey, but prices will rise worldwide as importers compete for alternative supplies.

Households in low-income countries allocate nearly half of their budgets to food, and higher prices will force "hard choices between food and other necessities".

The CGDEV blog also urged development agencies and global finance institutions to move quickly to respond to a clear increase in humanitarian needs, while wealthy governments should provide supplemental funding to the institutions well in advance of the coming food crisis.

NYTIMES, REUTERS