Trudeau’s murder claim risks upending US courtship of India

OTTAWA – Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s shocking allegations that India orchestrated the murder of a separatist leader leaves President Joe Biden caught between one of the United States’ closest allies and an increasingly important partner in countering China.

Indian leader Narendra Modi’s government on Tuesday denied that it had anything to do with the slaying of a prominent Sikh leader in Canada. It called the allegation “absurd”.

Both nations expelled one of the other’s diplomats.

Canada has yet to make any evidence public.

The White House reacted cautiously, with National Security Council spokeswoman Adrienne Watson saying the administration was “deeply concerned” and called on India to cooperate with the Canadian investigation.

A US official acknowledged that the allegations pose a problem for Mr Biden, who just left India with relations seemingly on track. 

Now the episode threatens to upend the US’ effort to court India as a counterweight to China, which was on display at the Group of 20 (G-20) summit in New Delhi earlier in September.

The US and its allies had hailed Mr Modi’s success in reaching a compromise on a joint communique, accepting softer language on Russia’s war in Ukraine to align itself more broadly with India, in the battle with China for influence among major emerging economies.

“The Biden administration is in a no-win situation with this latest bombshell,” said Mr Derek Grossman, a senior defence analyst at Rand Corporation.

“If it sides with Ottawa, then New Delhi will be up in arms and, once again, question the loyalty of Washington. If it sides with New Delhi, then the US is contradicting a Nato (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation) ally.”

The US frequently finds itself torn between its efforts to defend human rights around the world and the pragmatic need to partner with governments accused of regular abuses to protect its geopolitical interests. That leads to periodic tensions, such as when agents from Saudi Arabia murdered

Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018

. 

Mr Trudeau told lawmakers on Monday that there were “credible allegations” that

agents of the Indian government were behind the murder of Mr Hardeep Singh Nijjar,

a Canadian citizen, outside a Sikh temple in British Columbia in June.

Mr Nijjar was 45 at the time of his death and the temple’s president.

He was outspoken in both his advocacy for the creation of an independent Sikh state called Khalistan in north-west India, and his criticism of human rights violations in the South Asian country.

Mr Trudeau said on Tuesday morning: “The government of India needs to take this matter with the utmost seriousness.”

Canada is going to “remain calm, we’re going to remain grounded in our democratic principles and values, and we’re going to follow the evidence and make sure that the work is done to hold people to account”, he added. 

India has denied any involvement and blasted Canada for failing to take action against Sikh separatism. The country had declared Mr Nijjar a wanted terrorist and accused him of conspiring to murder a Hindu priest, among other allegations. 

Without a resolution, the dispute threatens everything from pending talks to expand the modest US$11 billion (S$15 billion) India-Canada trade relationship, to communications between the two countries’ militaries.

It is something that could create a headache for Mr Biden as he seeks greater cohesion from partner nations. 

Mr Modi’s government sees Mr Trudeau as politically beholden to the Sikh community, and expects relations with Canada to deteriorate, according to an Indian official with knowledge of the situation.

At the same time, the official said, India-US security cooperation is on a strong footing and is unlikely to be affected by Canada’s allegations. 

Mr Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Centre, said: “There is this evergreen challenge that the US and some of its allies face with India, concerns about what they regard as democratic backsliding.

“But at the same time, they want to ensure they don’t risk imperilling relations with a country that they view as strategically critical. Honestly, I think Washington will just stay quiet.”

The historical issue of Sikh separatism has troubled Canada-India relations for years, and politicians in both countries have tapped the issue to win votes.

Canada has the largest Sikh population outside of the Indian state of Punjab, after many left following riots in 1984.

They have also become an important political group, including within Mr Trudeau’s administration.

Mr Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party, meanwhile, has pushed policies appealing to voters who see India as a Hindu nation. 

India has been historically prickly about public criticism from the US and its allies, and the US has said that it tries to voice concerns behind closed doors.

Speaking in Vietnam after his G-20 visit to India in September, Mr Biden said he had raised rights issues in his recent meeting with Mr Modi, though it is unclear if they discussed Mr Nijjar’s killing. 

For its part, Canada pledged in a recently published strategy for the Indo-Pacific region to grow ties with India across a range of areas, while also acknowledging its growing strategic importance.

The two sides had also previously expected to agree to a trade pact by the end of 2023, but that was put on hold ahead of the G-20 summit.

Canada last week postponed a trade mission to India that had been set for October. 

As the India-Canada relationship worsens, the US will face a tough balancing act, according to Mr Vivek Mishra, senior fellow at New Delhi-based Observer Research Foundation.

“I expect there will certainly be back-channel discussion between the US and India on how to proceed further,” he said. “With Canada being a Nato ally and India being a strategic partner ally, the US will have to do the tightrope walk.” BLOOMBERG