Tropical Storm Helene gains power as it bears down on Florida

MIAMI – Tropical Storm Helene grew stronger as it moved into the Gulf of Mexico, where it threatens to clip the Yucatan Peninsula before striking Florida’s west coast as a major hurricane on Sept 26.

Helene’s winds rose to 113kmh as it churned 96km east-north-east of Cozumel, Mexico, the US National Hurricane Centre said early on Sept 25.

The storm’s winds are forecast to reach at least 193kmh, making it a Category 3 on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale, and there was a chance it could be even stronger.

“Helene is expected to become a hurricane,” Mr Robbie Berg, a meteorologist at the hurricane centre, wrote in his forecast. “The storm is forecast to rapidly strengthen over the eastern Gulf of Mexico and become a major hurricane on (Sept 26).”

This means Helene will land with tree-snapping winds.

While it was forecast to make landfall in Florida’s rural Big Bend region, it will drop as much as 38cm of rain across the state and the US South as it moves inland, leading to widespread power outages and disrupting ground and air transportation.

Rivers will rise, leading to days of flooding in some areas.

Damages and economic losses will likely be in the US$12 billion (S$15 billion) to US$15 billion range, said Mr Chuck Watson, a disaster modeller with Enki Research.

More than 40 million people in Florida, Georgia and Alabama were under hurricane and tropical storm warnings.

Mandatory and voluntary evacuations have begun in 13 counties in Helene’s path, the Florida Division of Emergency Management said in an X post.

In addition, Governor Ron DeSantis declared an emergency in 61 counties.

Sarasota County asked residents in several neighbourhoods to start leaving their homes on Sept 25, according to the county’s website.

Pinellas County officials ordered evacuations of long-term healthcare facilities, including nursing homes, assisted-living centres and hospitals near the coast. The county sits on a peninsula surrounded by Tampa Bay and the Gulf of Mexico.

“Now, you still have time to prepare, review your hurricane plan, and make sure that you are executing your hurricane preparedness plan,” Mr DeSantis said at a news briefing on Sept 24.

Georgia Governor Brian Kemp also declared an emergency across his state.

It has a lot of fuel

Helene will cross an area of the Gulf with water temperatures ranging from 30 deg C to 31.6 deg C, meaning there is a lot of fuel to help it grow stronger.

There is little storm-wrecking wind shear, so it is possible Helene will reach Category 4 strength, said Mr Tyler Roys, a meteorologist at commercial forecaster AccuWeather.

Mr Roys said Helene would most likely weaken before landfall, so he does not expect it to come ashore in Florida as a Category 4 storm.

But the area Helene will traverse has seen several storms explode in strength in recent years, including Hurricane Michael in 2018, the last Category 5 hurricane to hit the US mainland.

Ahead of Helene, heavy rain will bring flooding from Alabama to Virginia.

Atlanta, the site of a critical late-season series between baseball’s New York Mets and the Atlanta Braves, will likely be awash starting on Sept 25.

As Helene moves inland over the weekend, its winds will rake the region, leading to many trees toppling and adding to power outage woes throughout Georgia, North Carolina and Tennessee, Mr Roys said.

In the Pacific earlier this week, Hurricane John killed at least two people when it came ashore in Mexico’s Guerrero state before dissipating on Sept 24. Its remnants are bringing heavy rains across the region, including Acapulco.

In addition to Helene, the hurricane centre is tracking two other potential storms far from land in the central Atlantic. BLOOMBERG