The new Geneva? How Saudi Arabia became a power broker

SINGAPORE – Each spring, the Rose of Taif blossoms, bathing the mountainous eastern region in Saudi Arabia in a sea of blazing pink.

The flowering season is short, lasting from late February to late April. Farmers must move fast to pick blooms by hand each morning and ship them to distilleries to create the rich nectar involved in making valuable rose oil, or attar in Arabic.

Just 150km away in Jeddah – the second-largest city in Saudi Arabia after capital Riyadh – a similarly labour-intensive endeavour is about to get under way as US diplomats led by Secretary of State Marco Rubio attempt to sit with their Ukrainian counterparts to boil down issues and distil a miracle of their own.

The task? To salvage a ceasefire deal between Ukraine and Russia that all but collapsed two weeks ago halfway around the world

in Washington’s Oval Office.

The kingdom is once again centre stage for talks on Ukraine, after Riyadh

hosted the initial Russia-US talks in February,

the first high-level meeting between the two sides since Moscow dispatched troops to Ukraine three years ago. 

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky is also

expected to be in Saudi Arabia,

but will not participate directly in the Jeddah talks.

In a world defined by big power rivalry and regional conflicts, Saudi Arabia has successfully sought to position itself as the nexus for various high-stakes international and regional exchanges.

With help from the Saudis, the US and Russia had – in August 2024 – their largest prisoner swop since the end of the Cold War.

More recently, the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation at an emergency meeting hosted by Saudi Arabia on March 7

adopted a counter-proposal

to US President Donald Trump’s plan to take over Gaza and turn it into the “Riviera of the Middle East”.

That this was a role previously played by Europe – think the Oslo Accords or the Geneva Conventions – suggests a shift in diplomatic weight away from the West.

Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman deserves credit for this revival of global relevance. His Vision 2030 strategy, a plan primarily aimed at economic diversification away from oil as a source of national revenue, has spurred a growing economy and developed stronger, more extensive and trusted trade and investment partnerships globally. 

Today, Saudi Arabia is the biggest exporter of oil to China, enjoys close relations with Russia, which is a member of Opec+, and maintains strong security ties with the US that may grow tighter with a potential purchase of F-35 fighter jets. 

Its most profound shift lies in its Middle East foreign policy, where it has emerged not only as a key player but also a stabilising force for the region. From advancing efforts to reintegrate a weakened

post-Assad Syria

into the Arab League to seeking to stabilise Yemen’s new government and mending relations with Iran, Saudi Arabia has sought to shape a stable environment conducive for growth and domestic economic transformation, and in the process, grow its diplomatic influence.

The 2019 Houthi

drone attacks on two major oil installations

had reinforced the need for Saudi Arabia to transition from a passive stance in foreign policy towards an assertive and proactive posture.

Past Saudi actions that had cast a pall on its reputation and strained ties – including the

2017 blockade of Qatar,

and its purported role in the 2018 death of

journalist Jamal Khashoggi,

which the Saudis refute – seem to have receded from memory.

Some of its efforts may be more symbolic than substantive, like the first

China-Arab States Summit

hosted by Riyadh in 2022. But the signals of Saudi Arabia’s ambition to play a greater role in global politics – and the ongoing geopolitical shifts – are undeniable.

All this might help the Saudis focus externally on attracting more investments. The country is on a global diplomatic and economic charm offensive, sending large ministerial-level delegations to the annual World Economic Forum and hosting the “Davos in the Desert” summits.

To soften its image, it will

host the Fifa World Cup in 2034

.

To be sure, Saudi Arabia is leveraging its geographic advantage at the crossroads of Europe, Asia and Africa to play a pivotal role in geopolitics. But its rise as a diplomatic force is also a testament to institutional development and foreign policy investments – at a time when countries like the US are slashing foreign aid budgets and cutting public sector jobs.

“If you go to Saudi Arabia today, you will be deeply impressed by the staff in multiple ministries. They’re young and sharp,” Mr Norman Roule, a 34-year Central Intelligence Agency veteran and a non-resident senior adviser to the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, said on a podcast by the Middle East Institute in Washington on March 4.

“I have had a number of private sessions with some of the most senior officials of Saudi Arabia and I have been astonished at their work schedules. These are people who are working 14- to 16-hour days six days a week, sometimes even seven,” he added.

Saudi Arabia is a country that Mr Trump clearly values and trusts.

It was the destination of his first visit as US president in 2017, and he announced plans just last week to visit again to secure a business deal.

But the US President has also made the upcoming negotiations on Ukraine more challenging by

upping the ante

and saying he wants to see a change in Mr Zelensky’s attitude towards peace talks and progress on elections in Ukraine. 

Reviving a ceasefire agreement that could lead to a peace deal may indeed prove to be a litmus test for Saudi Arabia’s role as a credible host for high-stakes negotiations.