Taliban victory in Afghanistan may spur militants in S-E Asia

Shortly after the Taliban captured Kabul, an offshoot of South-east Asia's most notorious terror network Jemaah Islamiah (JI) congratulated the Afghan group for its "victory in freeing Afghan soil from the clutches of the American coloniser and puppet government".

The Aug 17 statement by Jamaah Ansharusy Syariah (JAS) was signed by the group's spokesman Abdul Rochim, who is the son of convicted radical cleric and JI's former spiritual leader Abu Bakar Bashir.

"We urge Muslims from all over the world, especially Indonesian Muslims, to celebrate this victory for Islam," the statement said.

JI, an affiliate of Osama bin Laden's Al-Qaeda, was behind some of the deadliest attacks in Indonesia, including the 2000 Christmas Eve bombings against churches and priests and the 2002 nightclub blasts on Bali that killed 202 people, mostly Westerners.

Sentenced to 15 years in prison in 2011 for funding a militant camp and freed in January, Bashir also founded other extremist groups in Indonesia such as Majelis Mujahidin Indonesia and JI's splinter cell, Jamaah Ansharut Tauhid (JAT).

But JAT has split into JAS and Jamaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD) after Bashir pledged allegiance in 2014 to Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the slain leader of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

While JAS maintains that it does not subscribe to extremism, the pro-ISIS JAD morphed into the country's leading terror organisation, blamed for, among other attacks, the church bombings on Sulawesi island in March this year and on Jolo island in the Philippines in 2019.

Indonesia's anti-terror outfits are now on alert, said a top official.

Whichever group or its affiliation, law enforcers will stay alert against potential threats, including a possible resurgence of attacks following the Taliban's success, said Brigadier-General Eddy Hartono, a spokesman for the National Counter Terrorism Agency.

"We should be careful with the euphoria surrounding the Taliban's victory... The worry is it could inspire supporters in this region," he told The Straits Times.

He noted that JAS, which has not committed any violence so far, has put out a statement in support of the Taliban, Al-Qaeda's long-time ally.

"Terrorism is born out of intolerance, which is dangerous," said Brig-Gen Eddy, a sentiment widely shared by leaders and officials around South-east Asia.

Philippine Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana told the Philippine News Agency on Aug 27: "Taliban or no Taliban, we have always considered local extremism as a big concern. Afghanistan is not the only country that could provide encouragement or inspiration to local terrorists."

He noted that the Philippines had agreements with Indonesia and Malaysia on protecting its southern borders and sharing information on the movement of terrorists.

Security analysts have warned that events in Afghanistan could encourage militant Muslims elsewhere to take up arms to topple their own governments.

"Some of them have expressed their desire to go to Afghanistan to learn military strategies from the Taliban. When they return to Indonesia, they want to use the military expertise they have acquired in Afghanistan to overthrow the legitimate Indonesian government," senior researcher Muh Taufiqurrohman from Jakarta-based think-tank, Centre for Radicalism and Deradicalisation Studies, told The Straits Times.

Such statements cannot be taken lightly, he said.

After all, militants from terror groups from around the region, including JI, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front and Abu Sayyaf in the Philippines, and Kumpulan Mujahidin Malaysia went to military camps in Afghanistan in the 1980s and 1990s.

There, they trained with guerilla fighters known as the mujahideen, learnt bomb making and infantry tactics, and established international connections.

Some of the militants mounted attacks when they returned home, and were a potent security threat to their governments and people.

The deaths of key figures and arrests by anti-terror police have weakened JI, but the organisation continues to exist.

Last month, Indonesian police arrested 53 militants, mostly from JI, suspected of planning attacks on Independence Day on Aug 17. Weapons, ammunition and donation boxes used to raise funds were seized.

In recent years, pro-ISIS groups have gained prominence and many, like JI, sent their members to train and fight overseas, namely in Syria and Iraq, particularly when ISIS held sway over large parts of Syria.

ISIS lost the last vestige of territory in 2019, but there is little doubt the group remains active, clearly evident when it claimed responsibility for an Aug 30 rocket attack on the airport in Kabul.

Analysts are convinced that, in the short term, pro-ISIS groups would likely pose the bigger threat.

Mr Taufik Andrie, a terrorism expert from the Peace Inscription Foundation, said: "In terms of small-scale attacks, ISIS will be more dominant than JI. The pro-ISIS groups like JAD may not be too structured, but they are more spontaneous and quick in building strength such as in logistics."

He added that these attacks, however, are more easily managed by well-trained anti-terror units.

JI, for now, has not shown interest or has the capacity, including trained militants, to commit terror acts, said Mr Taufik.

However he does not rule out physical attacks in the future, saying: "JI is in a period of idad (preparations), and when it is ready, which we don't know when, it could create momentum to strike."

More ominous, though, is that JI appears to have shifted its focus from armed militancy to becoming a more open organisation involved in religious outreach and democratic activities, such as participating in elections and lobbying the government and Parliament.

Dr Noor Huda Ismail, a visiting fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said JI has begun to exert its influence in "subtle and incremental" ways.

"JI provides services that the government cannot provide yet. If school fees are expensive, they say, 'Why don't you come to my school?', or if you are a hopeless romantic, they may say, 'I can find a spouse for you'.

"In politics, they could make a push for policies which support their ideology such as imposing syariah law."

Balinese Nyoman Gede Suma Artha is among those who hope the events in Afghanistan will not come to haunt them again. The 52-year-old social entrepreneur was only 50m away from where the blasts occurred in Bali in 2002.

He said: "I heard blasts which sounded like a gas container exploding. The situation was chaotic, dead bodies lying around, people were panicking and looking for their lost relatives. I hope terror attacks will never happen again."

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A timeline of terror

The 9/11 attacks launched on the United States by Al-Qaeda terrorists were the deadliest in history. But there have been other strikes around the world by the group and its associates prior to the attacks, as well as after them.

Dec 29: There are several casualties in the bombing of a hotel in Aden, Yemen, in what is believed to be the rst attack by Al-Qaeda against US interests. 2004

Feb 26: The World Trade Center is bombed in an attack that kills six and injures 1,500. The perpetrator had trained in Al-Qaeda camps.

Nov 13: A car bomb explodes at a facility in Riyadh where the US military is training Saudi National Guardsmen. Seven people die in the attack suspected to have been carried out by Al-Qaeda.

Aug 23: Osama bin Laden issues his first declaration of war against the United States and the West, calling for the death of Americans wherever they are found.

Aug 7: Al-Qaeda-linked terrorists bomb the US embassies in Nairobi in Kenya, and Dar es Salaam in Tanzania, killing 224 and injuring 5,000.

Oct 12: The USS Cole is bombed off Yemen. The attack by Al-Qaeda kills 17 and wounds 39.

Sept 11: Four passenger planes are hijacked in the United States. Two are flown into the World Trade Center in New York, while one crashes into the Pentagon. A fourth crashes into a field in Pennsylvania. Nearly 3,000 are killed in the attacks claimed by Al-Qaeda.

December: A plot by the Al-Qaeda-linked Jemaah Islamiah terror group to bomb diplomatic missions and attack personnel of the United States, Australia, Britain and Israel based in Singapore is uncovered. As many as 15 people are arrested within a month, with 26 more held between 2002 and 2005.

Dec 22: Al-Qaeda operative Richard Reid attempts to detonate explosives packed into his shoes while on a fiight, but is apprehended.

Oct 12: Multiple car bombings at nightclubs in Bali kill 202. Jemaah Islamiah claims responsibility.

Aug 5: A car bombing at the Marriott Hotel in Jakarta kills 13 and wounds 149. Jemaah Islamiah is held responsible.

March 2: Over 80 Shi'ite Muslims are killed and 200 injured in a series of explosions during events to mark Ashura.

April 21: Al-Qaeda terrorists detonate five car bombs in Al Basrah, Iraq, killing 73 and wounding 20.

July 7: Three simultaneous explosions on London's transport system kill more than 50 and wound over 700.

Oct 1: Resort bombings by Jemaah Islamiah terrorists in Bali kill 26 and wound more than 100.

Feb 3: A large truck bomb is detonated in a busy market in Baghdad, killing at least 135 people and injuring 339.

March 6: Suicide bombers detonate explosives in the midst of Shi'ite pilgrims in Al Hillah, Iraq, killing 120 and wounding 190.

March 27: Two truck bombs targeting Shi'ite areas in the town of Tal Afar, Iraq, kill 152 and wound 347.

Aug 15: At least 400 are killed and hundreds wounded in truck bomb explosions in Iraq's Ninawa Governorate.

Dec 27: Former Pakistan prime minister Benazir Bhutto is assassinated at a campaign rally in Rawalpindi by Al-Qaeda.

Sept 20: A truck bomb attack against the Marriott Hotel in Islamabad leaves over 60 dead and 200 wounded. Al-Qaeda is suspected to be behind the blast.

July 17: The JW Marriott and Ritz-Carlton hotels are simultaneously bombed in Jakarta, killing nine and wounding more than 50. Jemaah Islamiah's hand is suspected.

Feb 13: Al-Qaeda claims responsibility for the bombing of a German bakery in India that kills 17 people and injures at least 60.

April 15: Three people are killed and 264 wounded when bombs are detonated on the route of the Boston Marathon. The brothers who perpetrated the attack learnt how to make bombs from Al-Qaeda material.

Jan 7: An attack on the Charlie Hebdo satirical magazine's ofce in Paris leaves 12 dead. Al-Qaeda claims responsibility.