Strait of Hormuz tracker: Fewer ships seen entering oil choke point
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An oil tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Such ships make up the bulk of traffic through the Strait.
PHOTO: REUTERS
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Fewer commercial vessels appear to be entering the Strait of Hormuz, a vital choke point for energy exports from the Persian Gulf to the world, as Israel’s attack on Iran – and signs the US may join it – bring unease to the shipping industry.
Importantly, oil tanker arrivals appear more normal.
A five-day rolling average of vessels above 10,000 deadweight tons revealed a decline in ships sailing through the strait into the Gulf since Israel and Iran started exchanging missile strikes a week ago
The drop was led by container ships and bulk carriers. Departures from the sea are just above usual norms.
It is too early to draw definitive conclusions from the data, which are volatile at the best of times, but they offer a tentative idea that vessel owners might be steering clear of the conflict-ridden region.
Of the ships entering, oil tankers are showing little impact so far, with about 40 to 44 of the vessels still sailing through the space in both directions.
The ships account for the bulk of the traffic through the strait, with more than a quarter of the world’s oil shipped through the waterway between Iran and Oman.
Movements by liquefied petroleum gas and liquefied natural gas tankers also remain close to the usual combined total of seven to nine ships a day.
While Iran has threatened repeatedly to close the strait in times of heightened geopolitical tensions, it relies heavily on the route for its own oil and gas exports and revenues.
Still, traders will be watching closely for any impact on traffic should US President Donald Trump decide to get his country’s forces into the conflict.
Overall, daily transits through the waterway remain within typical ranges, with most loading and discharge activities proceeding as planned.
To be clear, it takes time to parse trends from data on shipping traffic. Cargo-loading schedules, the weather and other things can influence vessel movements, and the snapshot covers a relatively short time span. In addition, electronic interference affecting navigational signals in the region may be impacting the results.
While physical traffic is not blocked, high freight rates for vessels transiting the region reflect the wariness of shipowners amid the sharply increased perceived risk. BLOOMBERG
