Early results in South Africa’s election show African National Congress losing majority

MIDRAND, South Africa – The African National Congress (ANC) looks set to lose the parliamentary majority it has held for 30 years, as partial election results suggest it would need a partner to stay in power – a first in South Africa’s post-apartheid history.

If the final results confirm the loss of its majority, the ANC will be forced to make a deal with one or more other parties to govern – a situation that could lead to political volatility in the coming weeks or months.

“The ANC might have to consider forming an alliance with one of its major rivals in order to maintain its hold on power,” said Mr Andrew Bahlmann, co-chief executive at mergers and acquisitions advisory firm Deal Leaders International.

“The key area of uncertainty is the make-up of a future coalition.”

With results in from 20.4 per cent of polling stations, the ANC’s share of the vote in the May 29 election was 43.4 per cent, with the pro-business Democratic Alliance (DA) at 24.9 per cent, data from the electoral commission showed on May 30.

The Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party was at 8.8 per cent, while uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), a new party led by former president Jacob Zuma, was snapping at its heels at 8.1 per cent, with support concentrated in Mr Zuma’s home province of KwaZulu-Natal.

The ANC has won national elections held every five years since the landmark 1994 election, which marked the end of white minority rule and the ascent of Mr Nelson Mandela as president.

But since those heady days, the ANC’s support has fallen because of discontent over high unemployment and poverty, rampant crime, frequent power blackouts and graft.

While early results skew towards rural areas where the ANC is relatively strong, results from urban centres where it is weaker build up later.

Pollsters and two of the country’s three main broadcasters were predicting that the final results would confirm that the ANC - which won 57.5 per cent of the vote in the previous election in 2019 - had lost its majority.

Under South Africa’s proportional voting system, parties’ shares of the vote determine the number of seats they get in the National Assembly, which then elects the next president. With the ANC still on course to be the largest party, that is likely to be its leader Cyril Ramaphosa, the incumbent.

But a poor showing could make him vulnerable to a leadership challenge from within party ranks, whether in the immediate future or at some point during his term.

Risk of gridlock

Which of the opposition parties the ANC may seek out as a potential coalition partner is the subject of intense speculation.

“(These results) give the ANC the option of partnering with the market-friendly DA, which markets would undoubtedly prefer, or one of the two populist parties that advocate for the nationalisation of mines and banks,” said Mr Bahlmann, referring to the EFF and MK.

The rand slipped more than 1 per cent against the US dollar, while the wider equity index dropped more than 2 per cent. The country’s international bonds also fell.

The ANC has some policy similarities with the EFF and MK, but both are led by former ANC figures who have fallen out with the ruling party’s leadership.

Talks with the DA could also prove challenging as the parties are far apart on policy and fiercely antagonistic.

Mr Simon Harvey, head of foreign exchange analysis at Monex Europe, said the speed at which a coalition could be formed would be an indication of what was to come.

“If it is protracted, you may start to worry about a political gridlock going forward,” he said.

The ruling party issued a statement that gave little away.

“The ANC looks forward to a clear mandate from voters to continue the work of transforming South Africa and building a better life for all.”

Mr Zuma’s MK, in contrast, slammed what it called “Ramaphosa’s dismal regime” and set out its own policy stall, which echoed some of the goals the ANC pursued when Mr Zuma was president.

“The MK party remains committed to honouring your trust and working tirelessly to ensure that the vision of free education, expropriation of land, job creation, poverty eradication, youth entrepreneurship and the ushering in of a new Constitution... becomes a reality for all South Africans,” it said.

Mr Zuma was forced to quit as president in 2018 after a string of scandals and has since fallen out with the ANC leadership, leading him to throw his weight behind MK. The party, named after the ANC's armed wing from the apartheid era, appeared to be costing both the ANC and the EFF votes.

By law, the electoral commission has seven days to declare full results, but in practice, it is usually faster than that. In the last election, in 2019, voting took place on a Wednesday, like this year, and final results came on the Saturday.

The new Parliament must convene within 14 days of the final results being declared, and its first act must be to elect the nation's president. REUTERS