Snap poll signals no clear winner in UK election debate

LONDON - Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and opposition Labour Party leader Keir Starmer clashed over taxes in the first TV debate of the British election campaign, with the incumbent under pressure to build some momentum after a slew of polls showed his Conservative Party facing a wipe-out in the vote on July 4.

Mr Sunak accused Mr Starmer of planning to raise taxes, a traditional Tory attack line, repeatedly saying a Labour government would cost households an average of £2,000 (S$3,440).

Mr Starmer called that “garbage” based on made-up policies, and pointed out that the tax burden on Britons has soared under Mr Sunak. 

“He’s the British expert on tax rises,” Mr Starmer said in a heated exchange at the ITV debate in Manchester on June 4.

“Labour will raise your taxes, it’s in their DNA,” Mr Sunak retorted. “Your work, your car, your pension.”

It was the dominant theme of the first major set piece of the campaign.

Mr Sunak tried to sow doubt about what a Starmer government would mean, while the Labour Party leader reminded voters of the various crises that have dogged the Tories in 14 years in office.

A YouGov poll suggested neither had a real edge in the exchanges, with 51 per cent saying Mr Sunak had won compared with 49 per cent for Mr Starmer. 

But for the Prime Minister, the missed opportunity to land a more significant blow on his opponent was arguably more significant.

With the Tories trailing Labour by 20-plus points in most polls, he needs a boost that did not come.

Mr Sunak was at his strongest when doggedly repeating the line that Labour would hike taxes – Tory spinners later said Mr Starmer declined 12 times to refute it.

He also leaned heavily on his core campaign message that Mr Starmer lacks clear plans on key issues such as immigration and security.

“With Keir Starmer – apart from higher taxes – you don’t know what you’d get, and neither does he,” Mr Sunak said.

The problem for Mr Sunak is that attack lines on tax that worked for the Tories in past eras carry less weight given Britain’s recent economic turmoil. A recent survey by polling firm More in Common found that Britons see about the same risk of a Labour government raising taxes as a Conservative one.

Mr Starmer had his best moments when criticising the Conservatives’ 14-year record in government and pitching himself as the option for change.

He won some laughs from the audience when he pointed out that National Health Service waiting lists are longer than at the point Mr Sunak said he had cut them – and as the prime minister tried to argue they had actually come down. 

Mr Sunak, meanwhile, drew groans when he described as “transformational” his party’s plan to re-introduce mandatory national service if it is re-elected.

“The arsonists handed back the matches,” Mr Starmer said of the prospect of the Tories getting more time in office. “Imagine how you would feel waking up on July 5 to five more years of the Conservatives.”

Mr Starmer also appeared more in tune with the audience during the early questions on Britain’s ailing public services and the cost-of-living crisis.

Both were asked if they would use private healthcare if they had a loved one on a waiting list for surgery. Mr Sunak said he would. 

“No,” Mr Starmer replied. “I don’t use private health. I use the NHS (National Health Service). That’s where my wife works, in one of the big hospitals; as I said it runs through my DNA.”

Although YouGov’s snap poll gave Mr Sunak a slight edge overall, Mr Starmer came across as more likable, trustworthy and in touch with ordinary people.

The Labour leader also won on issues such as the NHS and the cost of living by wider margins than Mr Sunak did on tax and immigration, the pollster found.

Mr Sunak and Mr Starmer were also asked whether they would work with Donald Trump should he win the US presidency.

Both said they would, with Mr Sunak saying the UK-US relationship is vital for security and Mr Starmer saying the relationship is “special” and “transcends” the particular leaders in office.

Mr Sunak came into the debate in crisis mode after the latest YouGov deep-dive into the British electorate showed Labour on course for a landslide victory.

Another blow was the sudden announcement by Mr Nigel Farage – the anti-immigration populist who was a major player in Britain’s decision to leave the European Union – that he was standing for his Reform UK party in the election.

Mr Farage’s entry undermines Mr Sunak’s early campaign strategy to retain or win back pro-Brexit voters who are leaning towards Reform UK and in doing so, to hold on to the seats in traditional Labour areas that swung to Mr Boris Johnson’s Tories in 2019.

Mr Farage stood aside in hundreds of districts at that time, aiding the Conservative landslide.

This time, he said he wants to punish the Tories for their record in office and what Mr Farage calls their betrayal of Brexit.

The big fear among Conservative MPs even in so-called safe seats is that a resurgent Reform UK would split the right-wing vote, paving the way for Labour to make inroads in Tory heartlands.

YouGov modelling put Labour on 422 seats and the Tories on just 140, which would be their worst defeat since 1906.

Mr Sunak tacitly addressed the Reform threat in his closing statement, saying that a vote for anyone other than the Tories would make it more likely that Labour would win.

People familiar with the matter have said Mr Sunak may try to find a game-changer, such as taking a tougher stance on the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) or cutting inheritance tax. 

Asked if he would pull out of the ECHR, Mr Sunak ducked the question but said his government’s plans – including the policy to deport asylum-seekers to Rwanda – comply with the UK’s international obligations.

Mr Starmer’s answer was consistent with Labour’s appeal to more centrist voters, including its approach to managing the economy and commitment to national security.

“If I’m prime minister, we will not pull out of international agreements,” he said. “I want the UK to be a respected player on the global stage, not a pariah who doesn’t agree with international law.”

The June 4 debate was the first of a series of televised clashes between now and Polling Day.

Mr Starmer and Mr Sunak are also due to go head-to-head on June 26, and a seven-way debate involving senior party figures is on June 7.

Televised debates are a recent tradition in British politics. The first was in 2010 when then Labour Prime Minister Gordon Brown agreed to three with Conservative leader David Cameron and the leader of the Liberal Democrats, Mr Nick Clegg. Amid tight polling, a wave of “Cleggmania” saw the Liberal Democrats enter government in coalition with the Tories. But the more recent consensus is that they have only a limited impact on the final result. BLOOMBERG