Bolivia’s left in historic defeat as presidential vote set for October runoff

LA PAZ -Centrist senator Rodrigo Paz was leading Bolivia’s presidential election late on Aug 17, according to early official results, which showed the ruling Movement for Socialism (MAS) on track for its worst election defeat in a generation.

Mr Paz of the Christian Democratic Party had secured 32.18 per cent of the vote, while Mr Eduardo del Castillo of MAS had just 3.16 per cent, according to initial results released by the electoral tribunal on the night of Aug 17.

Conservative former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga of the Alianza coalition was in second with 26.94 per cent of the vote.

“Bolivia is not just asking for a change in government, it’s asking for a change in the political system,” Mr Paz said in a speech broadcast on the night of Aug 17.

“This is the beginning of a great victory, of a great transformation,” he added, as his supporters chanted “renewal.”

Earlier on Aug 17, Mr Quiroga acknowledged the results, confirming his place in the run-off, and congratulated Mr Paz on his performance.

Outgoing President Luis Arce released an upbeat statement recognising the results. “Democracy has triumphed,” the statement read.

If no presidential candidate obtains more than 40 per cent of the vote with a 10-point lead, the election will be decided in a run-off on October 19.

Full official results will be announced within seven days.

Mr Paz’s strong performance surprised analysts.

Opinion polls had suggested that the senator, with roughly 10 per cent support, was far behind Mr Quiroga and centre-right candidate Samuel Doria Medina of the Unidad Alliance coalition.

Businessman Medina conceded defeat on Aug 17 and said he would support Mr Paz in an eventual run-off.

The Aug 17 general election has been overshadowed by inflation at a four-decade high and the absence of former leftist president Evo Morales, who was barred from running and criticised the vote.

But Mr Morales’ calls to boycott the election appeared to fall flat.

Voter turnout on Aug 17 was steady, authorities said.

Despite earlier concerns that the electoral process in Bolivia could be obstructed by supporters of Mr Morales, who had called on the public to boycott the race, international observers said the vote took place without major disruptions.

Several minor incidents took place at polling stations in the central region of Cochabamba, Mr Morales’ political stronghold.

With a crowded field of eight contenders and no dominant MAS party candidate, the election marks a “crossroads moment” for Bolivia, said Southern Andes analyst Glaeldys Gonzalez Calanche of the International Crisis Group.

Bolivia’s fragile economy is top-of-mind for voters. Price rises have surged past other Latin American countries in 2025, and fuel and dollars have run scarce.

Annual inflation doubled to 23 per cent in June, up from 12 per cent in January, with some Bolivians turning to cryptocurrencies as a hedge.

Many Bolivians, especially those who work in the informal economy, were now struggling to make ends meet, said economist Roger Lopez.

“Bolivia is on the brink,” said Mr Lopez. “It has no dollars and faces obligations that must be paid in dollars, and voters understand that the coming years will be difficult.”

Early election results indicated they chose to punish MAS on Aug 17, creating a window of opportunity for the first time in nearly two decades for centrists and the right, which together commanded roughly three quarters of the vote, the early count showed.

“Every year the situation has got worse under this government,” said Ms Silvia Morales, 30, from La Paz, who works in retail.

A former MAS voter, she said this time she would cast her vote for the center-right.

Mr Carlos Blanco Casas, 60, a teacher in La Paz, said he intended to vote for change. “This election feels hopeful. We need a change of direction,” he said.

Mr Quiroga has promised “radical change” to reverse what he calls “20 lost years” under MAS rule.

He supports deep public spending cuts and a shift away from alliances with Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua.

Mr Quiroga was president for a year in 2001-2002 after the then-leader resigned.

Mr Paz meanwhile plans to decentralise government by introducing a “50-50 economic model” in which the central government would manage only half of public funds. The remainder would be designated to regional governments.

Ms Silvia Morales, 30, a former MAS voter from La Paz, said she had cast her ballot for Mr Paz on Aug 17.

“He’s a new face with experience,” she said, “I think we should make space for new opportunities.”

Voters also elected all 26 senators and 130 deputies, and officials assume office on November 8. REUTERS