Why Trump is eyeing Iran’s Kharg Island oil export hub

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TEHRAN – Iran’s oil exports are almost completely dependent on a small outpost in the Persian Gulf: Kharg Island.

Lying 24km off the Iranian mainland, the island is the loading point for around 90 per cent of the country’s crude shipments.

Exports have only dipped slightly since the US and Israel launched strikes against Iran, as the Islamic Republic has continued to send its own vessels through the Strait of Hormuz while effectively closing the waterway to all but approved ships from elsewhere.

While Kharg Island has already been caught up in the war, a round of US bombing in mid-March targeted military assets and spared the oil infrastructure.

Since then, US President Donald Trump has floated seizing Iran’s oil export hub or “obliterating” it, even as he claims talks to end the conflict are making progress.

Either action would be a marked escalation. A ground operation would carry huge risks, including significantly more casualties than the US has suffered so far.

What could a US invasion of Kharg Island achieve?

Speculation that the US will mount a ground offensive has been growing as it deploys thousands more troops to the Middle East, including an amphibious assault team.

Taking control of Kharg’s oil facilities could allow the US to halt the bulk of Iran’s crude exports.

This would put further pressure on the Iranian economy – which is highly reliant on oil revenue and has already been heavily strained by years of sanctions – and could provide leverage to force Iran to allow maritime traffic to resume through the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran has other oil export terminals, but none can match the capacity of Kharg, which handles around 1.5 million barrels of oil per day.

While the Jask terminal, located at the eastern end of the Strait of Hormuz, was built to reduce Iran’s dependence on the waterway, shipments from there have been infrequent. It has loaded only five tankers since officially opening in 2021.

That said, Iran has endured extended periods of low oil exports before, including during Mr Trump’s first term, when his “maximum pressure” strategy of harsh sanctions eroded the country’s crude shipments to less than a third of current levels.

What are the risks of invading Kharg Island?

More than a dozen US service members have already been killed in the Iran war.

Any attempt to seize and hold Kharg Island would put American troops in greater danger than they have been exposed to thus far. There is also the risk of more civilian casualties, as Kharg is populated mainly by oil industry workers.

A ground operation on Iranian soil would expand the scope of the war beyond an air campaign, could fuel growing criticism of the war in the US, and risks triggering an escalation that drags America deeper into a protracted Middle Eastern conflict.

Mr Trump himself has suggested that taking Kharg would be a longer-term commitment, telling the Financial Times it would “mean we had to be there for a while”.

He said in that same interview that the US could seize Kharg “very easily”.

But just getting to the island could prove challenging.

Kharg is located in the northern corner of the Persian Gulf, meaning any ships carrying troops and supplies would have to pass through the Strait of Hormuz and then the Gulf, where they could be targeted by missiles and drones launched from the Iranian shore, small attack boats and any sea mines that have been laid.

Even if the ships remain outside the Gulf and land forces are carried the rest of the way by air, the aircraft would be similarly vulnerable to attacks.

While the US Central Command said it destroyed naval mine storage facilities, missile storage bunkers and other military assets in its March 13 aerial strikes on Kharg, American ground forces could still encounter resistance – both on the island and from the mainland. 

Speaker of Iran’s Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said that Iranian forces “are waiting for American soldiers to enter on the ground”, according to the semi-official Tasnim news agency.

Iran may also respond with a scorched-earth strategy, sabotaging its own oil infrastructure and Kharg’s airstrip to prevent the territory from being seized.

How would an invasion of Kharg Island affect the oil market?

Disruption to oil exports out of Kharg would reverberate across the global market, where prices have already topped US$100 a barrel as most Gulf producers are unable to send their oil through the Strait of Hormuz.

While Iran is responsible for around 3 per cent of the world’s oil output, its exports from Kharg still exceed the production of most Opec countries. The majority of this crude goes to China, which would have to source replacement barrels from elsewhere.

Iran would likely retaliate against an attack on Kharg by escalating strikes on energy infrastructure across the Middle East, further roiling oil and gas markets.

An invasion could also prompt the Iran-backed Houthi militants to attack ships in the Red Sea, which Saudi Arabia has been using as an alternative route to Hormuz for its oil exports.

Higher energy prices could stoke inflation across the global economy, including in the US, where petrol prices are rising and affordability is set to be a key issue in the midterm elections later in 2026.

What are the key oil facilities at Kharg Island?

Oil is transported from Iran’s oil fields through subsea pipes to Kharg, where it is stored before being loaded onto tankers.

The island is dotted with storage tanks that can hold as much as 30 million barrels of crude – about a third of the capacity of the giant US storage hub at Cushing, Oklahoma.

Kharg’s deep waters mean it has space to berth eight tankers. More than 6 million barrels of crude can be loaded in a day, stretching to as many as 10 million barrels if necessary, according to Iranian officials. BLOOMBERG