US intelligence shows Iran government is not at risk of collapse: Sources

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NEW YORK/WASHINGTON - US intelligence indicates that Iran’s leadership is still largely intact and is not at risk of collapse any time soon after nearly two weeks of relentless US and Israeli bombardment, according to three sources familiar with the matter.

A “multitude” of intelligence reports provide “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” of collapse and “retains control of the Iranian public”, said one of the sources, all of whom were granted anonymity to discuss US intelligence findings.

The latest report was completed within the last few days before March 11, the source said.

With political pressure building over soaring oil costs, US President Donald Trump has suggested that he will “soon” end the biggest American military operation since 2003. But finding an acceptable end to the war could be difficult if Iran’s hardline leaders remain firmly entrenched.

The intelligence reporting underscores the cohesion of Iran’s clerical leadership despite the killing of its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, on Feb 28, the first day of the US and Israeli attack.

Israeli officials in closed discussions have also acknowledged there is no certainty the war will lead to the clerical government’s collapse, a senior Israeli official told Reuters.

The sources stressed that the situation on the ground is fluid and that the dynamics inside Iran could change.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the Central Intelligence Agency declined to comment.

The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Shifting objectives

Since launching their war, the US and Israel have struck a range of Iranian targets, including air defences, nuclear sites and members of the senior leadership.

The Trump administration has given varying reasons for the war. In announcing the beginning of the US operation, Mr Trump urged Iranians to “take over your government”, but top aides have since denied that the objective was to oust Iran’s leadership.

In addition to Mr Khamenei, the strikes have killed dozens of senior officials and some of the highest-ranking commanders in the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), an elite paramilitary force that controls large parts of the economy.

Still, the US intelligence reports indicate that the IRGC and the interim leaders who assumed power after the Ayatollah’s death retain control of the country.

The Assembly of Experts, a group of senior Shi’ite clerics, earlier this week declared Mr Khamenei’s son, Mr Mojtaba, as the new supreme leader.

Israel has no intention of allowing any remnants of the former government to stay intact, said a fourth source familiar with the matter.

It is unclear how the current US-Israeli military campaign would topple the government.

It would likely require a ground offensive that would allow people inside Iran to safely protest in the streets, said the source.

The Trump administration has not ruled out sending US troops into Iran.

Kurds lack firepower, numbers to battle Iran

Reuters reported last week that Iranian Kurdish militias based in neighbouring Iraq consulted the US about whether to attack Iran’s security forces in the western part of the country, and how.

Such an incursion could put pressure on Iranian security services there, allowing Iranians to rise against the government.

Mr Abdullah Mohtadi, head of the Komala Party of Iranian Kurdistan, part of a six-party coalition of Iranian Kurdish parties, said in an interview on March 11 that the parties are highly organised inside Iran and that “tens of thousands of young people are ready to take up arms” against the government if they receive US support.

Mr Mohtadi said he has received reports from inside Iranian Kurdistan that IRGC units and other security forces have abandoned bases and barracks out of fear of US and Israeli strikes.

“We have been witnessing tangible signs of weakness in Kurdish areas,” he said.

But recent US intelligence reports have cast doubt on the ability of the Iranian Kurdish groups to sustain a fight against Iranian security services, according to two sources familiar with those assessments.

The intelligence indicates that the groups lack the firepower and numbers, they said.

The Kurdish Regional Government, which governs the autonomous region of Iraqi Kurdistan where the Iranian Kurdish groups are based, did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The Iranian Kurdish groups have in recent days asked senior officials in Washington and US lawmakers for the US to provide them with weapons and armoured vehicles, another person familiar with the matter said.

But Mr Trump said on March 7 that he had ruled out having the Iranian Kurdish groups go into Iran. REUTERS