TRIPOLI • A full-throttle military intervention by Turkey could have turned the tide in Libya's civil war, in a striking development that's gone largely unnoticed by a world marshalling resources to fight the coronavirus.
With Ankara providing the firepower, the United Nations-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli is poised to gain the upper hand against an eastern military commander backed by the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Russian mercenaries.
The reversal can be seen playing out at Al-Watiya airbase in the desert south-west of the contested capital.
In March last year, Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar telegraphed his long-anticipated assault on Tripoli when cargo planes began flying in ammunition and weapons to Al-Watiya from his eastern stronghold.
Battered Soviet-era fighter aircraft were soon taking off from the base to bomb the capital, home to the UN-backed government.
More than a year on, Al-Watiya has become the besieged refuge for Field Marshal Haftar's fleeing loyalists after government forces backed by Turkish weaponry struck back, capturing a string of western towns last week.
Major-General Osama al-Juwaili, who heads the Tripoli administration's joint operations, said in an interview the stand-off would end with the departure of Field Marshal Haftar's forces.
On Saturday, a day after the Turkish air force and navy carried out a drill off Libya's coast, government forces launched an offensive on Tarhouna, closing in on Field Marshal Haftar's last remaining bastion near the capital.
The GNA said it had killed eight soldiers and captured more than 100 others.
Turkey's intervention to prop up Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj has, at least for now, changed the direction of a war that's drawn in international rivals keen to secure influence over the troubled Opec oil producer that straddles key migration routes across the Mediterranean from Europe.
But nations supporting Field Marshal Haftar are unlikely to stand down, with too much at stake for them to allow the defeat of the field marshal who controls the country's main oil facilities.
The country that's been in turmoil since a 2011 Nato-backed revolt ousted Muammar Gaddafi is likely to see yet more conflict.
"The balance of power has changed in the past two months due to Turkish support and what Turkey has brought in, in terms of material and fighters," said Dr Wolfram Lacher, a Libya expert with the German SWP research centre.
"This really raises the question for Haftar's backers: What are they going to do?" he said.
"It raises the prospect for further escalation if they decide to double down, as I would expect them to do."
BLOOMBERG, XINHUA
