Iran hits Kuwait refinery, Israel kills Iranian Guards spokesman as war rages on

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TEL AVIV/DUBAI/WASHINGTON - Iran attacked an oil refinery in Kuwait on March 20 and Israel killed a spokesman of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, as the US-Israeli war on Iran showed no sign of ending.

Israel promised to avoid further attacks on Iran’s South Pars gas field the day after an Iranian retaliatory strike on Qatar caused damage that will leave the world short of natural gas for years to come.

As Muslims around the region tried to celebrate Eid al-Fitr, which ends the fasting month of Ramadan, and Iranians marked Nowruz, the Persian New Year, the prospect of a quick end to a war about to enter its fourth week seemed remote.

The benchmark price of Brent crude oil eased slightly to US$108 after surging the day before on growing fears that the largest-ever disruption to world energy supplies would trigger a global economic shock.

Even if the conflict does stop soon, there will be no rapid recovery from the upheaval caused by air strikes and Iran’s virtual closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the conduit for 20 per cent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.

US President Donald Trump on March 19 repeated a call for major US allies and others, none of which were consulted or advised on the war, to help secure the safety of shipping. Germany, Britain, Italy, France, the Netherlands, Japan and Canada pledged in a joint statement to join “appropriate efforts to ensure safe passage through the Strait”.

However, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz made clear that this presupposed an end to combat.

French President Emmanuel Macron said after a European Union summit in Brussels that defending international law and promoting de-escalation was “the best we can do”, adding: “I have not heard anyone here express a willingness to enter this conflict – quite the opposite.”

Kuwait’s state oil firm said its Mina al-Ahmadi refinery had suffered multiple drone attacks that set some units alight.

Most energy shipped from the Gulf goes to Asia. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said some Asian customers could receive supplies within three or four days if the US decided to remove its own sanctions on Iranian oil currently stored at sea.

Flows of crude and petroleum have dropped by about 12 million barrels a day – roughly 12 per cent of global demand – owing to output cuts and export halts by Gulf producers. Those barrels cannot easily be replaced by the transport, shipping and manufacturing industries that rely on them, and their absence will be felt for months or even years.

International Energy Agency chief Fatih Birol told the Financial Times restoring oil and gas flows might take six months.

Israel’s military, meanwhile, said it had attacked government facilities in Tehran. Iranian state TV said Ali Mohammad Naini, deputy head of public relations for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, was the latest of dozens of leading government and military officials to be assassinated by Israel.

In Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, air raid sirens howled as explosions from interceptors rang out. The military said Iran had fired a barrage of missiles, and the ambulance service said at least one appeared to have carried dispersing cluster bombs.

Israel and US pursuing different aims

Prospects of a truce have not been helped by the sense that Israel and the US are pursuing different goals and strategies.

“The Israeli government has been focused on disabling the Iranian leadership,” US director of national intelligence Tulsi Gabbard said on March 19.

“The President said that his objectives are to destroy Iran’s ballistic missile-launching capability, their ballistic missile production capability and their navy.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on March 19 promised to heed Mr Trump’s instruction not to repeat the attack on Iran’s gas field, but also said Iran was now unable to enrich uranium, which can be used in nuclear warheads, or make ballistic missiles.

Yet, Iran’s ability to keep hitting targets such as refineries and US interests as well as others across the Middle East – including Yanbu, the main Saudi Red Sea oil port more than 1,200km away – belies such claims from Israel and the US.

The Revolutionary Guards said production of missiles was continuing, and that they were not running out of them.

The war has already killed thousands and displaced millions, mostly in Iran and Lebanon, where Israel has attacked the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militia in the south and in Beirut.

It appears to be redrawing Israel’s political map in Mr Netanyahu’s favour, while trapping Mr Trump in a conflict with no clear exit, exposing his Gulf Arab allies to spiralling risks and undercutting the economic storyline that powered his return to office.

Mr Netanyahu said on March 19 that overthrowing Iran’s government would require a “ground component”.

A US official and three people familiar with the matter told Reuters this week that the US was considering deploying thousands more troops to the Middle East, potentially even landing on Iran’s shore or its Kharg Island oil export hub.

Asked about such reports, Mr Trump said on March 19: “If I were, I certainly wouldn’t tell you. But I’m not putting troops. We will do whatever is necessary.”

While soaring US diesel and petrol prices can only hurt Mr Trump’s core political support, the war is also unpopular with voters, and a potential ground operation even more so, as his Republicans prepare to defend slim majorities in midterm congressional elections. REUTERS