Syria’s Assad is under siege and is making overtures to the US: Sources

With

Syrian rebels edging ever closer to the capital Damascus

, President Bashar al-Assad is making a last-ditch attempt to remain in power, including indirect diplomatic overtures to the United States and President-elect Donald Trump, according to people with direct knowledge of the situation.

Mr Assad is ordering his army to fall back to defend Damascus, essentially ceding much of the country to insurgents, who

seized the major cities of Aleppo

and Hama in a lightning offensive over the past week. The rebels have entered Homs, a war monitor said, the last major city before Damascus.

As his remaining troops dig in, Syria’s long-time ruler is signalling his willingness to reach a deal that would allow him to hold on to the rump territory his army controls, or guarantee his safe passage into exile if needed, said the sources. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss secret meetings.

One offer Assad made to the US via the United Arab Emirates is for Syria to cut all involvement with Iran-backed militant groups, such as Hezbollah, if Western powers wield influence to stem the fighting, the people said. 

Another initiative saw Mr Assad dispatch a senior Christian leader to meet Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban to relay what he sees as an existential threat to Syria’s Christian minority if Islamist rebels prevail, according to other people familiar with the plan. The intention was that Mr Orban, a Trump ally, would convey this danger to the incoming US president, they said.

Trump, who is in Paris,

has responded to events on the ground.

He took to X to say: “There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid. In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!”

It is a dramatic turn of events for a dynasty that has ruled Syria with an iron fist for half a century, crushed peaceful protests in 2011 and clung to power through years of civil war that spurred one of the worst humanitarian crises of modern times. Iranian and Russian military support was crucial to the survival of the 59-year-old President, but both are now distracted and stretched thin by other conflicts.

“Assad is in huge danger – it’s almost like in 2015 when the insurgents were at the gates of Damascus,” said Mr Sergei Markov, a political consultant close to the Kremlin, referring to the year Russia intervened to save Mr Assad.

Western nations were equally surprised, including the US, which had largely relinquished much of its influence in Syria to Iran, Russia and Turkey but has reacted to protect its interests, according to senior officials. 

Multiple Western officials said it was difficult to see Mr Assad remaining in power.

The fall of Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, could cut the highway linking Damascus and the country’s west and Mediterranean coast – the stronghold of the Assads and loyalists from their Alawite sect.

South of Damascus, rebels have seized parts of Daraa province bordering Jordan and in the capital, residents of some districts took to the streets and tore down billboards of Mr Assad. In one area, people destroyed a statue of his late father Hafez, himself a former president.

The President’s whereabouts are unclear, although he is believed to still be in Damascus or his home town of Al-Qardaha, close to Russia’s Khmeimim airbase. It is also possible he is in the Iranian capital, Tehran, a person familiar with US policy said on Dec 7.

His office issued a statement condemning “rumours and fake news”, saying the President remains in the capital.

Mr Assad has ordered the bulk of Syria’s remaining army – estimated at between 30,000 and 40,000 fighters – to rush to defend Damascus, according to two people familiar with the matter. An army spokesman said in a TV address on Dec 7 that it was strengthening its defences in the countryside around the city.

The main rebel offensive has been led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, or HTS, a former Al-Qaeda affiliate, and various armed groups backed by Turkey. Other fighters have joined in, including army defectors who had fought the regime and laid down arms in previous ceasefires, said the sources. 

As rebels converge on Damascus from the north and south, Iran has drawn back its presence in Syria, leaving its military advisers concentrated around the capital, according to sources. Some Tehran-backed Iraqi militias have also returned to their country after the government ceded the eastern city of Deir Ezzor to US-backed Kurdish fighters, they said. 

Russian personnel now remain mainly around the capital and at the Khmeimim airbase and Tartous naval base, they said.

After a meeting with his Iranian and Turkish counterparts in Doha on Dec 7, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow is “trying to do everything not to allow terrorists to prevail”.

“We don’t want them to follow the fate of Iraqis, Libyans and other nations who were disturbed by the people desiring to keep their domination,” he said.

Trump said on Dec 7 that a withdrawal from Syria might “be the best thing that can happen” to Russia and that troops should not get involved in the fighting.

Back channels

Russia has launched air strikes around Homs to try to stall the rebel advance. But with signs the Kremlin’s help may not be enough, Mr Assad is pressing on with back-channel negotiations.

A key goal would be retaining control of a portion of the country and addressing Turkey’s demands for a political transition and the potential return of millions of Syrian refugees, a major issue for Ankara. 

Mr Assad is also proposing a new Constitution and talks with the mostly exiled political opposition, according to the sources familiar with the outreach.

It is unclear if the efforts will bear fruit. Events on the battlefield have their own momentum, and even countries such as Turkey that have influence over the rebels may not be able to fully control events.

“I don’t think any of these outside powers have the leverage over their proxies to change the course of what is happening on the ground,” said Dr Andreas Krieg, director of London-based Mena Analytica. “At this moment most bets are that the Assad regime may not be able to hold out.” 

Patriarch visit

It was against that backdrop that Mr Assad sent Syriac Orthodox Patriarch Ignatius Aphrem II to Hungary on Dec 2 to relay his fears. Syria’s Christian community makes up about 10 per cent of the country’s 24 million population. 

The plan to have Prime Minister Orban relate this message to Trump was described by an aide to the patriarch and another person with knowledge of the encounter.

People close to Trump could not immediately comment, but said he had dispatched his in-law and Middle East adviser, Mr Massad Boulos, to the United Arab Emirates on Dec 7 to discuss the situation in the region.

Mr Assad has pursued similar tactics before. HTS leader Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani and other rebels have in recent days attempted to allay the fears of Christians and Syria’s other minorities that they envision a form of Islamic rule. 

Mr Assad’s own Alawite community, which has stuck by him since 2011 and paid a heavy price to defend the regime, also appears to sense the end may be near. 

Ms Nariman, an Alawite woman reached by phone in Damascus on Dec 6, said she, her husband who is in the security forces and their 23-year-old son were fleeing to their ancestral village near Jableh in western Syria. She said there were many families like hers.

Nobody is going to fight for Mr Assad this time, she said, asking not to be identified by her last name for reasons of safety. BLOOMBERG