Saudi Arabia opposed Obama’s deal with Iran, but it supports Trump’s. Why?

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia – Ten years ago, when US President Barack Obama and other leaders reached a deal with Iran to limit its nuclear programme, Saudi Arabia was dismayed.

Saudi officials called it a “weak deal” that had only emboldened the kingdom’s regional rival. They cheered when President Donald Trump withdrew from the agreement a few years later.

Now, as a second Trump administration negotiates with Iran on a deal that might have very similar contours to the previous one, the view from Saudi Arabia looks quite different.

The kingdom’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement recently saying that it hoped the talks, mediated by neighbouring Oman, would enhance “peace in the region and the world”.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman even dispatched his brother, Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman, to Tehran, where he was received warmly by Iranian officials dressed in military regalia. He then hand-delivered a letter to Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, a man whom Crown Prince Mohammed once derided as making “Hitler look good”.

What changed? Relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran have warmed over the past decade. As important, Saudi Arabia is in the middle of an economic diversification programme intended to transform the kingdom from being overly dependent on oil into a business, technology and tourism hub. The prospect of Iranian drones and missiles flying over Saudi Arabia because of regional tensions poses a serious threat to that plan.

“Their mindset is different today,” said Ms Kristin Smith Diwan, a senior resident scholar at research group Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington. “Under Obama, the Gulf States feared US and Iran rapprochement that would isolate them. Under Trump, they fear US and Iran escalation that would target them.”

Iran and the United States wrapped up a second round of diplomatic talks over Tehran’s nuclear activities on April 19, setting an agenda for rapid-paced negotiations.

Mr Trump has been vague about the objectives of the negotiations, other than to repeat that Iran must never get a nuclear bomb. But Iranian officials say the deal taking shape would not require them to dismantle the country’s nuclear infrastructure.

Arab states including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Qatar and Bahrain have all welcomed the talks, preferring diplomacy to an escalating conflict.

Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi wrote on April 19 on social media platform X: “These talks are gaining momentum and now, even the unlikely is possible.”

The negotiations come against a backdrop of tensions across the Middle East, as US air strikes target the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen and Israel continues bombing the Gaza Strip. In March, Mr Trump said he would bomb Iran if it did not reach a deal over its nuclear programme.

Israel had planned to strike Iranian nuclear sites as soon as in May, but was waved off by Mr Trump in recent weeks in favour of negotiating a deal with Tehran to limit its nuclear programme, according to US administration officials and others briefed on the discussions.

Mr Firas Maksad, managing director for the Middle East and North Africa practice at Eurasia Group, a political risk consulting group, said: “More than ever, Arab Gulf States are status quo powers in search of lasting stability, a prerequisite for achieving their lofty economic visions. Their strong preference is for Iran’s destabilising activities and its nuclear programme to be curtailed through diplomacy.”

Sunni Muslim-led Saudi Arabia and Shi’ite Muslim-majority Iran had long backed opposite sides in regional conflicts, including a grinding war in Yemen that precipitated one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. The two countries had no diplomatic relations from 2016 to 2023, espousing open hostility.

Crown Prince Mohammed has repeatedly threatened that if Iran obtains a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia will, too. Separately, the Trump administration has revived talks over a deal that would give Saudi Arabia access to US nuclear technology and potentially allow it to enrich uranium.

But in 2023, Iran and Saudi Arabia announced a formal reconciliation, mediated by China. By then, Crown Prince Mohammed’s foreign policy focus had shifted towards calming regional conflicts.

Saudi Arabia, a key US ally, is a prime target for retaliation when Iran seeks to strike US interests. Its proximity makes it easy for Iranian proxies to attack. In 2019, a Saudi oil installation was hit in a sophisticated Iran-backed attack. Saudi officials have lamented that the episode taught them the limitations of their American alliance, pushing them towards talks with Iran rather than continued conflict.

Ms Diwan said: “The potential rewards of negotiation look better today than the risk of a regional war.”

A decade ago, Gulf leaders felt sidelined in the negotiations. This time, Iran has conducted regional outreach, said Ms Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, a research institute.

“What was striking after the first round of negotiations is that the Iranian Foreign Minister reached out to counterparts, including in Bahrain,” she said. “Iran wants to have regional buy-in and Gulf States are not only supportive of the negotiations, but looking to prevent any escalation that could have implications for their economic and national security.” NYTIMES