On 100th day of Gaza war, fans and foes agree Netanyahu's reign will not last

RAMLA, Israel – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s autobiography, published a year before

Hamas’ attack on Oct 7, 2023,

lays out a scenario that bears a chilling similarity to the events of Israel’s deadliest day.

Referring to the Palestinian militant group’s decade-old plan that prompted Israeli forces to go to war in Gaza in 2014 to avert such an assault, he wrote: “Hamas intended to surprise Israel by initiating the simultaneous penetration of hundreds of terrorists into the country.

“They planned to enter kindergartens and schools, murder Israelis and whisk dozens of hostages to Gaza back through the tunnels. This could spell disaster.”

On Oct 7, 2023, Hamas militants executed their plot in a rampage in southern Israel, but with one difference – hostages were not taken into Gaza through tunnels but across a breached border fence.

Israelis are still reeling from the attack that day, when 1,200 people – most of them civilians – were killed, and another 240, including children and elderly, were kidnapped. The assault triggered the ongoing Israeli military campaign in which nearly 24,000 Palestinians have been killed, so far.

Stunned by the massive security failure, many want Mr Netanyahu out of office.

A poll published by the non-partisan Israel Democracy Institute on Jan 2 showed that

only 15 per cent of Israelis want Mr Netanyahu to remain in office

after the war on Hamas ends – in line with previous polls that have shown his popularity sharply down.

But the embattled leader, who for years has brandished a Mr Security image, shows no sign of wanting to leave.

Political analyst Amotz Asa-El said: “He’s defiant. He’s apparently taken a strategic decision to survive politically, even this. I think it’s a quixotic aim, and sooner or later, I believe that his own colleagues will tell him that his time is up.”

Political change looks unlikely in the near term while fighting in Gaza still rages. And Mr Netanyahu has vowed to pursue war until complete victory over Hamas, with security chiefs warning that combat will run through 2024.

But there are signs within Mr Netanyahu’s government that others are jockeying for position.

Reports of wrangling within the security Cabinet have been leaked to the Israeli press, and far-right Police Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, who is largely cut out of any war decisions, has taken swipes at former Israeli centrist defence chief Benny Gantz, who has joined Mr Netanyahu’s emergency government and war Cabinet.

Anti-government street protests that swept Israel for almost a year until the attack have been rekindled in recent weeks, calling for elections to be held. But those are still yet small in scale compared with the mass demonstrations of 2023.

“It’s time for him to go,” said marketing manager Noa Weinpress in Tel Aviv. “It should have happened on the eighth of October and, if not, definitely now, after 100 days.”

Even some of Mr Netanyahu’s biggest fans seem resigned to the inevitable departure of a leader they still admire.

“I think he’ll win the war and step down, with dignity,” said Mr Yossi Zroya, a member of Mr Netanyahu’s Likud party and the owner of a shawarma stand in Ramla. It was here that Mr Netanyahu was greeted with cheers of “King Bibi” 15 months ago at an election campaign event, where he pledged to return security to the streets.

The sentiment was echoed by other supporters strolling through Ramla market. “Netanyahu is a genius. He’s not to blame for what happened,” said Mr Rafi Kimchi, a diamond dealer visiting from nearby Herzliya. “But I think he’s done. It’s finished.”

Eyeing disillusioned Likud voters, Mr Ben-Gvir could be looking to set himself apart and leave the government ahead of a campaign, said Mr Asa-El, a research fellow at the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem.

Meanwhile, Mr Gantz’s popularity has soared in the polls, and he is seen as a responsible man of the people. Many Likud veterans have long been vying to succeed Mr Netanyahu, including Foreign Minister Israel Katz and lawmaker Yuli Edelstein.

Former Israeli spy chief Yossi Cohen – a frequent commentator on news shows in recent weeks – has also been floated as a successor, with some polls giving a party led by him around 12 of the Knesset’s 120 seats.

“Nothing is out of the question,” Mr Cohen told N12’s Uvda television show on Jan 4. “I have not decided yet.”

Mr Asa-El predicted a “political bang” once fighting subsides, and possibly a premature election. “There will be vast, big and multiple demonstrations if the politicians will try to drag their feet,” he said. REUTERS