News analysis
Netanyahu consolidates hold, shows determination to continue war by sacking defence minister
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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu (left) sacked his defence minister, Mr Yoav Gallant, on Nov 5.
PHOTO: EPA-EFE
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LONDON – As voters in the US went to the polls to elect its new president, the fear of all security specialists in the Middle East was that Iran might use the cover of the US elections to launch a new attack on Israel.
Yet the real bombshell in the Middle East was delivered not by Iran but by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who used the day when US and world attention was focused on the American ballots
The dismissal of Mr Yoav Gallant
And it also acts as a reminder that he will stop at nothing to secure his political survival.
The 65-year-old Mr Gallant, who has served as defence minister since 2022, belongs to Mr Netanyahu’s hard-right Likud party. Despite his recent popularity with the government’s critics, he is hardly a moderate when dealing with military affairs.
He is a highly decorated naval commando officer who rose to the rank of major-general and only narrowly missed being Israel’s overall military commander.
He led controversial Israeli offensives a decade ago against Hamas in Gaza, activities which a subsequent UN investigation determined were “designed to punish, humiliate and terrorise” the civilian population of Gaza.
Immediately after Hamas led an incursion into Israel on Oct 7, 2023,
“There will be no electricity, no food, no water, no fuel,” he vowed in comments that were subsequently submitted to the International Court of Justice as alleged evidence that Israel may be responsible for activities tantamount to genocide in Gaza.
Nonetheless, in the context of Israel’s domestic policies, he was regarded as a relative moderate in a government dominated by hardliners.
In 2023, Mr Netanyahu fired Mr Gallant
Relations between the two have remained tense ever since, and were made worse in the last few months by differences over the conduct of Israel’s wars.
Mr Gallant has demanded that Israel prioritise the negotiated return of its estimated 100-odd hostages still held by Hamas over the continuation of the Gaza offensive, an appeal the Prime Minister ignored.
The outgoing defence minister also wanted to establish an impartial inquiry into the failure of the Israeli government to prepare for the Hamas attack, a move Mr Netanyahu strenuously opposes.
But the most significant source of discord was Mr Gallant’s demand that the sons and daughters of ultra-Orthodox religious Israeli citizens should do national service,
Many religious Israelis already serve in the military, but the children of the stricter sects of Judaism are usually exempt from service.
Israel’s Supreme Court recently ruled that this exemption has no basis in national law and ordered the government to begin conscripting everyone.
However, Mr Netanyahu, whose coalition government depends on the votes of fringe religious parties, keeps inventing excuses to delay the implementation of the court order. He is now planning to introduce a law in the Knesset – Israel’s Parliament – providing ultra-Orthodox Jews with an explicit exemption from national service.
Mr Gallant strenuously opposed the move. The ultra-Orthodox community, he said, “must serve and defend the State of Israel”.
“A discriminatory and corrupt law must not be allowed to pass in the Israeli Knesset, exempting tens of thousands of citizens from bearing the burden,” he added.
Mr Gallant’s reward was his dismissal from the government.
But Mr Netanyahu prepared the move well in advance. Two weeks ago, he boosted his parliamentary majority by including a small right-wing party in his coalition government, which should give him enough votes to survive any expected backlash among his parliamentary backbenchers.
Speculation is now rife among seasoned Israeli political observers that he will follow the change of defence minister with a wholesale purge of the chief of the defence staff – the overall commander of Israel’s armed forces – and the bosses of Israel’s intelligence services.
Mr Netanyahu denied it, claiming it is “meant to sow division”.
Yet there is little doubt that the Cabinet reshuffle places him in a stronger position to conduct the wars in Gaza and Lebanon more or less as he pleases.
Mr Israel Katz, the new Defence Minister, has no constituency inside the ruling Likud party and no stellar former military career to formulate his own strategy, so he is expected to do the Prime Minister’s bidding.
And although Mr Netanyahu denies plans to appoint new military and intelligence chiefs, the fact that he can do so with relative impunity should keep his opponents at bay.
The manoeuvre, carefully timed to coincide with the US elections, gives Mr Netanyahu the ability to sustain any anticipated pressure from US President Joe Biden, who remains in the White House until Jan 20, 2025, and who wants the wars in Gaza and Lebanon to end as quickly as possible.
As things currently stand, Mr Netanyahu will not have to spend too much time listening to Mr Biden.
Ultimately, it will not be pressure from Washington but developments inside Israel that could restrain him from continuing the wars.
Mr Gallant is sure to reveal many details about Mr Netanyahu’s conduct of the war in Gaza, including damaging information about how Mr Netanyahu deliberately torpedoed discussions about a ceasefire and a return of the hostages.
Polls also show that Mr Gallant has consistently been the most popular member of Mr Netanyahu’s Cabinet; his sacking prompted instant street demonstrations in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.
And it has also galvanised the Israeli opposition.
Said opposition leader Yair Lapid: “No one, not even Netanyahu supporters, believes that Mr Gallant was fired for any professional reason. He was fired because Mr Netanyahu favoured the draft dodgers over those who serve.
“He was fired because of Mr Netanyahu’s need for political survival at a time of war.”
