More hardships in store as world population passes 8 billion: UN
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SHARM EL-SHEIKH, Egypt – The world’s population surged past eight billion people on Tuesday
Whether it is food, water or petrol, there will be less for all
“Every single person needs fuel, wood, water and a place to call home,” said Ms Stephanie Feldstein, population and sustainability director at the Centre for Biological Diversity.
Resource pressure will be especially daunting in African nations, where populations are expected to boom, experts say. These are also among the countries most vulnerable to climate impacts, and most in need of climate finance.
In sub-Saharan Africa, where some 738 million people already live without adequate food supplies, the population is projected to jump by 95 per cent mid-century, according to the Institute for Economics and Peace. The think-tank warned in an October report that much of sub-Saharan Africa will be unsustainable by mid-century.
Globally, the eight billion-population milestone represents one billion people added to the planet in just the last 11 years.
Reaching eight billion people is “a sign of human success, but it’s also a great risk for our future”, said Mr John Wilmoth, director of the UN’s population division.
Middle-income states, mostly in Asia, accounted for most of that growth, gaining some 700 million people since 2011. India added about 180 million people, and is set to surpass China as the world’s most populous nation next year.
But births have been falling in the United States, Europe and Japan. China, too, has struggled with the legacy of its one-child policy scheme, and last year urged families to have a second and even third child as it also limited access to non-medical abortions.
Even while the global population reaches new highs, demographers note that the growth rate has fallen steadily to less than 1 per cent per year. This should keep the world from reaching nine billion people until 2037.
The UN projects population will peak at around 10.4 billion people in the 2080s and remain at that level until 2100. “A big part of this story is that this era of rapid population growth that the world has known for centuries is coming to an end,” Mr Wilmoth said.
Most of the 2.4 billion people to be added before the global population peaks will be born in sub-Saharan Africa, marking a shift away from China and India.
“African cities will, on average, grow,” said Professor Deborah Balk, a demographic researcher at City University of New York. This will leave millions more urban dwellers exposed to climate threats such as rising seas.
Worldwide, “the coastal zone is disproportionately urban”, she said, with about one in 10 people living in the low-lying coastal zone. The coastal Nigerian city of Lagos, for example, is projected to become the world’s largest city by century’s end.
Rapid population growth combined with climate change is likely to cause mass migration and conflict in coming decades, said experts. And having more people on the planet puts more pressure on nature, as people compete with wildlife for water, food and space. But how much they consume is equally important, suggesting policymakers can make a big difference by mandating a shift in consumption patterns.
Carbon emissions of the richest 1 per cent – about 63 million people – were more than double the emissions of the poorest half of humanity between 1990 and 2015, according to a 2020 analysis by the Stockholm Environment Institute and non-profit Oxfam International.
Humanity’s impact on the natural world “has more to do with how we behave than how many we are”, Mr Wilmoth said. REUTERS
