Is he still in charge? Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s absence raises alarm in Iran

TEHRAN – With the nation watching, the host on Iranian state television asked the question that so many people in Iran – from the political elite to people on the street – were wondering.

“People are very worried about the supreme leader,” the host said to an official from Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s office on June 24. “Can you tell us how he is?”

He noted that viewers had sent a flood of messages asking the same thing. But the official, Mr Mehdi Fazaeli, the head of Mr Khamenei’s archives office, did not give a straight answer.

Instead, Mr Fazaeli said he, too, had received numerous inquiries from officials and others worried about the ayatollah after the furious bombing campaign by Israel and the United States.

“We should all be praying,” Mr Fazaeli said.

“The people who are responsible for protecting the supreme leader are doing their job well,” he added. “God willing, our people can celebrate victory next to their leader, God willing.”

Mr Khamenei has not been seen publicly or heard from in nearly a week, despite the extraordinary crisis that his country has faced.

In the past few days alone, the US bombed three of Iran’s nuclear facilities, Iran retaliated by firing ballistic missiles at a US base in Qatar, and Iran and Israel agreed to a ceasefire that went into effect on Tuesday morning.

Through it all, Mr Khamenei – who officials say has been sheltering at a bunker and refraining from electronic communication to prevent assassination attempts against him – has remained absent, issuing no public statements or recorded messages.

His absence has surprised and unnerved everyone from political insiders to the general public.

Mr Mohsen Khalifeh, editor-in-chief of Khaneman, a daily newspaper focused on real estate development, said in an interview that Mr Khamenei’s “days-long absence has made all of us who love him very worried”.

Acknowledging a possibility that two weeks ago would have seemed unthinkable, Mr Khalifeh added that if Mr Khamenei were dead, his funeral procession would be “the most glorious and historic”.

As the supreme leader, Mr Khamenei has the last word on all major state matters. As the commander-in-chief of the armed forces, he would be expected to approve any military decision as significant as the attack on the US base or the ceasefire deal with Israel.

The ceasefire agreement, requested by US President Donald Trump and mediated by the emir of Qatar, appears to have been brokered swiftly. Yet, senior military commanders and government officials have been evasive about whether they have met or spoken with Mr Khamenei in recent days.

Uncertainties ahead

His public silence has led to a flurry of speculation and doubt: How involved has Mr Khamenei been in the most recent decisions, given the many potential difficulties or delays in reaching him? Is he still supervising the country on a daily basis? Is he injured, sick or even alive?

Mr Hamzeh Safavi – a political analyst and son of General Yahya Safavi, a Revolutionary Guard commander and top military adviser to Mr Khamenei – said Iran’s security officials believed Israel might still try to assassinate Mr Khamenei, even during a ceasefire. So, he said, they are enforcing extreme security protocols, including limited contact with the outside world.

“There is a pragmatic view taking hold for managing the country out of this crisis,” he said, by empowering other leaders, like President Masoud Pezeshkian.

Still, Mr Safavi said he believed that Mr Khamenei was weighing in on key decisions remotely.

Even so, some of Mr Khamenei’s supporters are posting on social media and telling one another in text messages that they cannot feel Iran has been victorious in the war against Israel until they see or hear from the supreme leader.

Four senior Iranian officials, familiar with current policy discussions in the government, said in Mr Khamenei’s absence, politicians and military commanders were forming alliances and vying for power.

These factions have different visions of how Iran should move forward with its nuclear programme, its negotiations with the US and the stand-off with Israel.

The faction that appears to have the upper hand at the moment is pushing for moderation and diplomacy, the four officials said. It includes Mr Pezeshkian, who has publicly signalled his willingness to return to the bargaining table with the US even after Mr Trump bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities.

Mr Pezeshkian’s allies include the head of the judiciary, Mr Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, who is close to the supreme leader, and the new commander of the armed forces, Major-General Abdolrahim Mousavi.

The Iranian government is trying to ride the wave of nationalist fervour that has emerged in reaction to Israel’s withering air strikes, which officials say have killed more than 600 people in Iran.

Tehran’s National Symphony performed at an outdoor concert in Azadi Square – a symbolic landmark named “freedom” – in Tehran on June 24. A light show followed with pictures of emergency responders projected on the arch-like tower at the centre of the square.

Iran’s plan for its damaged nuclear facilities remains a looming question.

Both the foreign minister, Mr Abbas Araghchi, and the head of Iran’s Atomic Energy Organisation, Mr Mohammad Eslami, have said in interviews with local news media that Iran will rebuild and revive its nuclear programme and continue enriching uranium.

Mr Sanam Vakil, director for the Middle East and North Africa at research group Chatham House, said Mr Khamenei’s absence was notable and a sign that Iran’s leaders were being “extremely careful and security-minded”.

“If we don’t see Mr Khamenei by Ashura”, an important religious procession for Shi’ite Muslims observed in Iran in early July, Mr Vakil said, “that is a bad sign. He has to show his face.” NYTIMES