Iran’s dual challenge: Unrest at home, threat of strikes from abroad
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Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said that “rioters must be put in their place”.
PHOTO: REUTERS
Farnaz Fassihi
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TEHRAN - Iran’s government has, in recent years, weathered wave upon wave of nationwide protests challenging its rule by resorting to force.
But for the first time, the country’s rulers face a more complex challenge: growing domestic unrest combined
The government appears at a dead end in addressing both, with no clear strategy for reversing the economic collapse fuelling protests, nor any signs that Iran’s leaders are willing to make the concessions on their nuclear programme sufficient to appease Israel and the US and ward off the risk of another round of strikes.
The protests have convulsed Iran for a week. Though they have not reached the size and scope of the last two major uprisings – one in 2022 led by women and another in 2019 set off by petrol prices – they have rattled senior officials and drawn a prompt reaction from the US and Israel.
President Donald Trump threatened to intervene, saying in a social media post on Jan 2 that if Iran killed “peaceful protesters”, the US would come to their aid, adding: “We are locked and loaded and ready to go.”
The Israeli Foreign Minister and several government officials have spoken out on behalf of the protesters.
Ms Gila Gamliel, Israel’s Minister of Innovation, Science and Technology, said in a video posted on social media on Jan 1: “Israel is with you, and we support you in every way possible.”
On Jan 3, the US military attacked Venezuela
At a news conference where Mr Trump said Washington planned to run the South American country for the immediate future
Iran’s leaders and political figures have sounded rattled and shocked. The ramifications for Iran cannot be overstated.
Mr Ali Gholhaki, a hardline pundit in Iran, said in a phone interview that the dire state of the economy had played a central role in the downfall of the leaders in both Venezuela and Syria, creating a maelstrom of public discontent and dispirited security forces.
“The lesson for Iran is that we must be extremely careful that the same scenario does not happen here,” he said. “When the anti-riot police, security forces and the military are struggling for their livelihood, the defence lines collapse.”
On Jan 2, after Mr Trump made his threat to strike Iran, the country’s Supreme National Security Council, the body in charge of internal and external security, held a late-night emergency meeting to discuss how to contain the protests with less violence to avoid fuelling public anger.
It also wanted to prepare for the possibility of military strikes, according to three Iranian officials familiar with government deliberations who asked not be named because they were discussing sensitive issues.
The three officials said that as the protests raged, senior officials in private meetings and conversations had acknowledged that the Islamic Republic had been thrust into survival mode.
Officials appear to have few tools at their disposal to deal with either the pressing challenges of a tanking economy fuelling unrest or the threat of further conflict with Israel and the US.
President Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly said as much publicly in recent weeks, at one point announcing that he had “no ideas” for solving Iran’s many problems.
“Any policy in the society that is unjust is doomed to fail,” Mr Pezeshkian said in a speech on Jan 1, his first public address since the protests began. “Accept that we must listen to the people.”
Things the government has done so far to address the nation’s economic woes, such as replacing the governor of the central bank and announcing changes to the currency policy, have accomplished little. Really fixing the economy would require major policy changes that would result in a nuclear deal with Washington to lift sanctions, and a crackdown on corruption.
Iran’s government appears either incapable of such steps or unwilling to take them.
Analysts say that the country’s woes are intertwined. The economy was seriously damaged by US sanctions on oil sales and international banking transactions, imposed in 2018 when Mr Trump exited the nuclear deal with Iran.
After the UN Security Council brought back sanctions in September, the Iranian currency plunged further. Rampant corruption and mismanagement have also played a role.
Adding to Iran’s troubles is the continuing conflict with Israel. Israel has carried out assassinations and explosions targeting nuclear and military structures, while Iran has armed and financed militant groups in Lebanon, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank.
Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran in June 2025, setting off a 12-day conflict that culminated with the US bombing and heavily damaging Iran’s nuclear facilities.
This past week, the three officials familiar with government talks said, concern had been rising that if domestic instability continued, Israel would see an opening to strike again.
The remarks by Mr Trump and Israeli officials added to those fears, the officials added.
Mr Pezeshkian held two emergency meetings with his economic advisory committee last week, asking for guidance and for written talking points if the crises deepen, according to two officials familiar with the details of the meeting who, like some others interviewed for this article, requested anonymity because they were not authorised to speak publicly.
Some advisers, they said, suggested that Mr Pezeshkian should deflect blame in public speeches and point to Iran’s dual-power structure, in which key decisions are made by the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
On Jan 3, Mr Khamenei took a harder line than the President, saying in a public speech that “rioters must be put in their place” and blaming foreign enemies for the devaluation of Iran’s currency and other economic problems. He did, though, acknowledge that merchants in Tehran’s bazaar had a right to protest against fluctuating prices.
The current round of unrest started this past week with those merchants shuttering their shops in protest. As the strikes spread to other cities, the government announced a four-day nationwide holiday ending on Jan 4 to try to contain the situation.
On Jan 4, the majority of the shops in Tehran’s bazaar remained closed, and there were reports of scattered protests and heavy presence of anti-riot police, according to videos on social media and Iranian media reports.
In the past few days, the unrest has turned into riots in many places, with young men attacking government buildings, clashing with security forces and setting on fire cars, motorcycles and rubbish cans, according to videos posted on social media, Iranian media outlets, and the BBC Persian service.
Security forces have beaten protesters and used tear gas, and in some videos from cities in western Iran, gunshots can be heard. At least eight protesters and two security agents have been killed, according to official media reports, rights groups and video footage of funerals.
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi privately met some heads of government-affiliated media organisations on Jan 1 and called the brewing crisis a fight for the survival of the Islamic Republic’s rule and for the nation, according to two people familiar with the meeting.
Mr Araghchi told the media representatives that the prospects of negotiations with Washington were currently non-existent and that decisions about whether to engage with the US were not up to him, the two people said.
For a week, crowds have taken to the streets to vent anger at the government and to call for the end of Islamic clerical rule. The protests have mostly been in smaller towns and in poorer areas, and on university campuses, where people were chanting “death to Khamenei” and “freedom, freedom”.
Some also made a broad denunciation of authoritarian rule, chanting “death to the oppressor, whether king or supreme leader”, said activists and residents inside Iran.
But in Tehran, with the exception of the bazaar downtown, the university campus, and a few working-class neighbourhoods, the city seemed normal, residents said in interviews and videos on social media suggested. Ski resorts north of Tehran were packed with affluent day trippers.
In a joint statement, 17 Iranian pro-democracy activists, including jailed Nobel Peace Prize laureate Narges Mohammadi and film directors Jafar Panahi and Mohammad Rasoulof, called on security forces to refrain from attacking protesters.
“The only path to saving Iran is a transition away from the Islamic Republic – a demand that is neither temporary nor suppressible,” the statement said. NYTIMES
