Iran’s waves of cheap drones could show sophistication – or shortfalls

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TEHRAN - Iran’s attacks over the first day of combat have leaned heavily on drones and small-scale missile strikes, trends that could indicate either deliberate planning – or a breakdown in command and control.

Rather than sustained volleys, attacks have been intermittent, with waves of small, Shahed-136 one-way attack drones – essentially unsophisticated cruise missiles – punctuated by smaller strikes with ballistic weapons.

That pattern could indicate that early

US and Israeli strikes to kill Iranian leaders

have left battlefield commanders to operate on their own. But in the Ukraine war, both sides have used cheap weapons to deplete or distract enemy air defences, before launching more serious strikes – a tactic that Iran may also be applying. 

“Soaking up interceptors could be a goal,” said Dr Sid Kaushal from the Royal United Services Institute, adding that Iran’s ballistic missile supplies may be reduced by US strikes, and that Tehran may have realised that many targets can be hit without using them.

Because Iran had time to plan – and reason to believe the US would try to eliminate its leadership in an attack – Tehran may have moved to decentralise military operations, leaving commanders with target sets and instructions to strike opportunistically, said Mr William Alberque, a senior fellow at the Pacific Forum.

“Central coordination was clearly a bug, not a feature, of their system once they planned for potential decapitation,” he said.

Iran operates submarines, small boats carrying anti-ship missiles, and sea mines, but so far, no attacks on US Navy or civilian vessels have been reported. Tehran has also not directly attacked oil or gas infrastructure. Those options give it ways to escalate the conflict.

Another reason Shahed drones have played a major role is that they are simply smaller and easier to conceal. With the US and Israel actively hunting ballistic missile storage facilities and launchers, trucks carrying drones may slip through, leaving the weapons more available for strikes.

The sheer volume of those weapons also increases the chances that one will get through, said Mr Mick Ryan, a retired Australian Army general and senior fellow at the Lowy Institute.

“No missile and drone defence system is 100 per cent,” he said.

Indeed, many Iranian weapons have reached their targets around the Gulf despite the presence of missile interceptors on US Navy ships and Patriot and THAAD batteries on land.

Although the US moved personnel and equipment out of bases within range of Iran’s missiles, damage to the facilities themselves appeared to have been quite significant in some cases.

Naval Support Activity Bahrain, a base in that country that is home to the headquarters of the US Navy’s Fifth Fleet, was hit by multiple ballistic missiles and drones on Feb 28, sending plumes of thick, black smoke into the sky.

Three

US service members were killed

and five “seriously wounded” during operations against the Islamic republic, US Central Command said on March 1.