Iran says oil blockade will continue until attacks end, Trump threatens to escalate strikes

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DUBAI/CAIRO/WASHINGTON – Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on March 10 they would not allow “one litre of oil” to be shipped from the Middle East if US and Israeli attacks continue.

This prompted a warning from US President Donald Trump that the US would hit Iran much harder if it blocked exports from the vital energy-producing region.

Following up on that threat, US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth vowed to deal out to Iran the “most intense day” of American strikes since the start of the war.

He said that “the most fighters, the most bombers” would be deployed on March 10, and that the US military was giving Mr Trump “maximum options” to conduct the war.

But Mr Hegseth, who said last week that the conflict could last three to eight weeks, argued that it was up to Mr Trump to assess whether “it’s the beginning, the middle or the end”.

“He gets to control the throttle,” he said of Mr Trump.

The comments were among several indicating that the main parties in the war were sticking to their positions, with no talk of diplomatic efforts to end a conflict that has killed more than 1,000 people and that has seriously disrupted global energy markets.

The heightened rhetoric did little to quell a sharp retreat in crude prices and a rally in global shares, which came after Mr Trump expressed confidence in a swift end to hostilities even after Iran appointed Mr Mojtaba Khamenei as its new supreme leader in a signal of defiance.

Mr Trump said on March 9 the US had inflicted serious damage on Iran’s military and predicted the conflict would end well before the initial four-week time frame he had laid out, though he has not defined what victory would look like.

US General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, acknowledged on March 10 that Iran was adapting to the American military campaign, but declined to say what changes were the most challenging for US forces.

“They’re fighting, and I respect that, but I don’t think they’re more formidable” than anticipated, he said.

Meanwhile, Israel said its war aim is to overthrow Iran’s system of clerical rule.

“Our aspiration is to bring the Iranian people to cast off the yoke of tyranny,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement issued by his office on March 10.

“In the end, that depends on them. But there is no doubt that, through the actions taken so far, we are breaking their bones, and our hand is still extended,” he said. “If we succeed together with the Iranian people, we will bring about a permanent end, if such things exist in the life of nations.”

The Israeli military said on March 10 that it again pounded Tehran, hitting a string of targets overnight in the city, including an underground complex inside a “military university” used for military testing.

US officials mainly say Washington’s aim is to destroy Iran’s missile capabilities and nuclear programme, but Mr Trump has said the war can end only with a compliant Iranian government.

At least 1,332 Iranian civilians have been killed and thousands wounded since the US and Israel launched a barrage of air and missile strikes across Iran at the end of February, according to Iran’s UN ambassador.

Iran says it will determine end of war

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said it would not allow any oil to leave the region if attacks from the US and Israel continue.

“We are the ones who will determine the end of the war,” a spokesman said, describing Mr Trump’s comments as “nonsense”, according to state media.

Mr Trump warned that US attacks could rise sharply if Iran sought to block tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles one-fifth of the world’s oil supply.

“We will hit them so hard that it will not be possible for them or anybody else helping them to ever recover that section of the world,” he said at a news conference on March 9.

In a later Truth Social post, Mr Trump repeated his warning.

“If Iran does anything that stops the flow of Oil within the Strait of Hormuz, they will be hit by the United States of America 20 times harder than they have been hit thus far,” he said.

In response, Iran’s security chief Ali Larijani called Mr Trump’s threats “empty”.

“Even those greater than you could not eliminate the Iranian nation,” he said in a post on the social media platform X. “Take care of yourself not to be eliminated!”

Saudi Aramco, the world’s top oil exporter, warned on March 10 of “catastrophic consequences” for global oil markets if the war continues to disrupt shipping in the Strait of Hormuz.

The strait is the world’s most vital oil export ​route, connecting the biggest Gulf oil producers with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea.

The war has already effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz, leaving tankers unable to sail for more than a week and forcing producers to halt pumping as storage facilities fill.

Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran was unlikely to resume negotiations with the US, citing what he described as a “bitter experience” with past talks.

Mr Khamenei’s appointment on March 9 appeared to dash hopes of a swift end to the war, sending oil markets surging and share markets nosediving, before swinging in the other direction when Mr Trump predicted a quick end to the war and reports of a possible ease in sanctions on Russian energy.

After speaking with Russian President Vladimir Putin, Mr Trump said the US will waive oil-related sanctions on “some countries” to ease the shortage.

According to multiple sources, that could mean a further easing of sanctions on Russian oil, which could complicate efforts to punish Moscow for its war in Ukraine.

Other options include a possible release of oil from strategic reserves or restricting US exports, sources said.

Brent crude futures fell more than 10 per cent on March 10 after soaring by as much as 29 per cent on March 9 to their highest since 2022. Global stock markets also bounced.

The price of petrol has particular political resonance in the United States, where voters cite rising costs as a top concern ahead of the November midterm elections, when Mr Trump’s Republicans will try to keep control of Congress.

A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on March 9 found 67 per cent of Americans expect petrol prices to rise over the coming months, and only 29 per cent approve of the war.

“They’re horrible,” one Los Angeles driver said of current petrol prices. “They’re too expensive. They’re high, they’re just so high, you know. Sometimes, you have to choose between petrol and other things that you really need.”

Oil refinery hit

Tehran was choked in black smoke after an oil refinery was hit, an escalation in strikes on Iran’s domestic energy supplies.

World Health Organization chief Tedros Ghebreyesus warned the fire risks contaminating food, water and air.

Turkey said NATO air defences had shot down a ballistic missile that was fired from Iran and entered Turkish airspace, the second such incident of the war. Iran did not immediately comment on the report.

Israel’s military said it had launched new attacks in central Iran and struck the Lebanese capital Beirut, where it has extended its campaign after the Iran-backed militia Hezbollah fired across the border.

In Australia, five Iranian women’s soccer team players were granted humanitarian visas after they sought asylum fearing persecution in their home nation.

Canberra has also promised to send military surveillance aircraft to the Middle East and missiles to the United Arab Emirates to help them defend themselves against attacks from Iran. REUTERS