In Syria, US hopes to avoid replay of Afghanistan
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US officials take some reassurance from the way Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) governed Syrian territory under its control before Mr Bashar al-Assad was ousted.
PHOTO: NYTIMES
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WASHINGTON – As US officials engage with the rebel group now in control of Syria, they are mindful of a painful episode in recent US foreign policy whose consequences continue to unfold: the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan.
Three US diplomats met last week in Damascus toppled the dictatorship of former president Bashar al-Assad
Their goal was to persuade the militant group – the successor to an affiliate of Al-Qaeda – to govern the country with an inclusive and moderate hand.
That is the best hope, US officials believe, for preventing Syria from descending into fresh violence and chaos that could further destabilize the Middle East and empower anti-American terrorist groups.
So far, US officials think that the rebels are saying the right things.
The senior State Department official for the Middle East, Ms Barbara Leaf, said the group’s battle-tested leader, Mr Ahmed al-Sharaa, “came across as pragmatic” in the meeting in Damascus.
Mr Sharaa had offered “moderate statements” on a range of matters, including the rights of women and minority groups, and given assurances that terrorist groups would not operate within Syria, she said.
Even so, US officials remain wary of him. They fear he might be sweet-talking to win international backing as he plots to consolidate power and perhaps impose strict Islamic rule, much as Taliban leaders did in 2021 in Afghanistan.
As US troops prepared to withdraw that year,
Some US officials believed that the group had become less doctrinaire since its overthrow by US forces in 2001. Taliban leaders, they thought, might be willing to make concessions – like allowing girls to attend school – to win international recognition and help rebuild their shattered nation.
That effort failed completely.
After the last US troops departed and Afghanistan’s president fled, the Taliban overran Kabul and seized power. They wasted little time imposing harsh restrictions on daily life – banning music, closing girls’ schools
As it turned out, Taliban leaders cared more about their religious ideology and wielding total power than about what the US and its allies might provide for them.
The episode has not been forgotten by top Biden administration officials.
“There is a lesson there,” Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last week during an appearance at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York City.
“The Taliban projected a more moderate face – or at least tried to – in taking over Afghanistan, and then its true colours came out. The result is it remains terribly isolated around the world.”
Mr Blinken framed the example as a cautionary tale for HTS. But some analysts warn that the US should have learnt from its experience in Afghanistan also.
“People at the State Department were the ones telling us the Taliban would moderate, that they were seeking legitimacy,” said Mr Bill Roggio, a former US Army soldier who edits The Long War Journal, an online publication that focuses on counter-terrorism.
“But we failed to understand that what they seek first and foremost is power, and holding onto it, and imposing their version of syariah law on their people.”
On the same day that the US officials held their meetings in Damascus, the US and several other governments issued a joint statement expressing “grave concern” over the Taliban’s recent barring of women and girls from attending medical schools.
The statement also noted that “some terrorist groups still reside safely inside Afghanistan” and are capable of striking beyond the country’s borders.
But so long as the Taliban are willing to reject America’s recognition and aid, and even access to US$10 billion (S$13.6 billion) in central bank reserves
“The lesson from Afghanistan is that Western leverage is limited,” said Dr Colin Clarke, director of research at The Soufan Group, a consulting firm that tracks global terrorism.
Mr Roggio said that hopes for a more pragmatic Taliban had reflected “a classic case of Western projection”, one that he fears is being replayed today in Syria.
“We think HTS is seeking legitimacy, that they’re willing to moderate to garner that legitimacy,” he said. “We don’t take into account that they might actually be playing us, telling us what we want to hear.”
Mr Roggio is particularly skeptical that Mr Sharaa has abandoned the Al-Qaeda worldview he once publicly endorsed.
Once a senior Al-Qaeda fighter in Iraq during the US occupation, Mr Sharaa became the leader of a Syrian rebel group called the Nusra Front, an official affiliate of Al-Qaeda.
In January 2017, he founded a new group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which he declared independent.
Soon after he founded HTS, the State Department designated it a terrorist group, warning that the US was not fooled by its “attempt to rebrand itself”.
US officials take some reassurance from the way HTS governed Syrian territory under its control before Mr Assad was ousted. Analysts say that HTS no longer uses terrorist tactics such as suicide bombings and does not call for attacks on other countries.
After visiting Damascus, Ms Leaf said the US was suspending a US$10 million (S$13.6 million) bounty announced years ago for information about Mr Sharaa. She framed the decision not as a reward for any particular actions, but as a practical matter.
Still, Biden officials remain guarded. They say they will remove HTS from the US terrorist list
One critical test is whether Mr Sharaa’s new government prevents terrorists from using Syria as a base. The HTS ranks include thousands of radicalised foreign fighters who may want to use a post-Assad Syria as a base to pursue other targets.
For some foreign policy experts, the lesson of the Taliban is not that the US should keep a wary distance, but that it must engage more actively in Syria.
Dr Zalmay Khalilzad, who served as the US special envoy to Afghanistan under President Donald Trump and, until late 2021, under President Joe Biden, said the Biden administration made a mistake by not having more direct contact with the Taliban after they took power in Kabul.
Dr Khalilzad said that he had urged senior Biden officials to take a more active approach toward Syria and that last week’s meeting with Mr Sharaa and his associates was a positive step.
“Not that prematurely engaging doesn’t have risks,” he said. “But I think there is an element of timing, of shaping things.” He added that Syria is “more strategically important” to the US than Afghanistan, making the task more urgent.
Dr Clarke of the Soufan Group and other analysts said there was little room for trust when it came to the promises of militants.
“Talk is cheap,” he said. “So no matter what these groups say, believe their actions, not their words.” NYTIMES
