‘They knew they were next on the list’: Hezbollah spent months re-arming ahead of another Israel war

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BEIRUT - Lebanese armed group Hezbollah spent months restocking its arsenal of rockets and drones, using support from Iran and its own weapons factories to prepare for a new war with Israel, six sources familiar with the group’s preparations said.

Down but not out after its devastating 2024 conflict with Israel, Hezbollah had concluded that another round of fighting was inevitable - and that this time, it could face an existential threat, according to the sources.

Reuters spoke to three Lebanese sources briefed on Hezbollah’s activities, two foreign officials in Lebanon and an Israeli military official, who all spoke on condition of anonymity as they were not authorised to speak to the press.

The details of Hezbollah’s recent efforts to re-arm have not been previously reported.

The head of Hezbollah’s media office, Youssef al-Zein, told Reuters that Hezbollah would not comment on its military operations, though he said the group had decided to “fight to the last breath”.

Paying salaries, replenishing stockpiles

Founded by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards in 1982, Hezbollah launched rockets and drones at Israel on March 2 to avenge the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, pulling Lebanon into the war raging across the Middle East.

Although the decision caught some of its own officials off guard, Hezbollah had been readying its military stockpiles and its command-and-control structure for an eventual re-match with Israel, the six sources said.

To do so, it had drawn on a monthly budget of US$50 million, most of it from Iran and earmarked for fighters’ salaries, according to one of the Lebanese sources, who has been briefed on the group’s finances and military activities. One of the foreign officials confirmed the US$50 million budget.

It was not immediately clear how long the group had been relying on that monthly budget and how it compared to its previous financial resources.

The group has said funds from Iran helped finance rents for people displaced by the 2024 war. Around 60,000 Lebanese, most of them from the Shi’ite Muslim community from which Hezbollah draws its popular support, remained displaced over the last year, with their homes still in ruins.

Hezbollah had also worked to replenish its drone and rocket stashes through local manufacturing, the first Lebanese source, the foreign officials and the Israeli military official said. The Israeli military official said Hezbollah had used Iranian funding both to smuggle arms and make its own weapons, but added that its manufacturing capability had been diminished.

The second foreign official said the group had stationed new rockets and Iranian-made logistical materials in southern Lebanon before the latest war began.

Hezbollah’s media office did not immediately respond to questions on its rearmament and Iranian support for it.

Israeli military spokesperson Lieutenant Colonel Nadav Shoshani told Reuters that Hezbollah “had a lot of arms left” and was also seeking to re-arm. “They were trying to smuggle and we were preventing that,” he said.

Pace of fire builds up

In 2024, a punishing two-month war with Israel ended with a ceasefire brokered by the United States. Hezbollah halted its attacks on Israel, which continued strikes on what it said were Hezbollah’s efforts to rebuild military capabilities.

Israel also kept troops in five hilltop positions in southern Lebanon.

Last year, Lebanon also began confiscating Hezbollah weapons in the country’s south - but Israel said the group was re-arming faster than it was being disarmed.

Speaking to Reuters weeks before Hezbollah entered the regional war, the first Lebanese source confirmed that the group had been rebuilding its military capabilities “in parallel” with Israel’s campaign to destroy them.

The pace of Hezbollah’s attacks this week provides clues about its weapons stocks.

The group launched 60 drones and rockets on March 2, the first day it attacked Israel, and a similar number the following day, said the second foreign official, who tracks Hezbollah’s activities closely.

But on March 4, Hezbollah launched more than double that number of projectiles, a sign it had been able to draw from its larger caches, the official said.

ALMA, an Israeli think tank that monitors security on Israel’s northern border, said it assessed that Hezbollah’s arsenal on the eve of its attack included approximately 25,000 rockets and missiles, most of them short- and medium-range.

A video published by Hezbollah on March 4 showed a fighter setting up a drone in a wooded area. Riad Kahwaji, a Dubai-based defence analyst and founder of the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, identified the drone in the video as a Shahed-101, which he told Reuters could be produced locally.

Hezbollah expected a fight for survival

Hezbollah has also dispatched fighters from its elite Radwan force back to southern Lebanon, Reuters reported this week. They had been withdrawn from the area after the 2024 conflict.

Israeli strikes after the 2024 ceasefire included the targeting of what Israel said were Hezbollah training camps. In late February, the Israeli military said it struck eight military compounds used by the Radwan force to store weapons and prepare for a confrontation.

The Israeli official and the first foreign official said Hezbollah had been struggling to recruit new operatives as a result.

The group lost 5,000 fighters in the 2024 war, an unprecedented blow to its fighting force, though the second Lebanese source said it still had some 95,000 fighters left.

In the lead-up to its entry into the current regional war, Hezbollah had become convinced Israel would carry out a major strike on the group that would seek to “disable its ability to retaliate”, the first Lebanese source said.

A third foreign official familiar with Hezbollah’s thinking said that assessment had driven the group’s decision to launch the first salvo, fearing Israel would eventually turn its attention from Iran to Hezbollah.

“They knew they were next on the list,” the official said. REUTERS