Gaza truce could end in days, with no extension agreed: What happens next?

When Israel and Hamas

agreed to a six-week ceasefire in January,

there were hopes that it would evolve into a longer and more stable truce.

Now, those hopes are dwindling.

Both sides have accused each other of breaking the terms of the existing deal, which have allowed for the exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners. Over the weekend,

Israel delayed the release of several hundred prisoners,

protesting the humiliating manner in which Hamas had paraded hostages before handing them over.

With just days before the current truce elapses on March 2, the sides have yet to begin negotiations for an extension.

Mr Steve Witkoff, the Mid-east envoy for the Trump administration, said he would return to the region on Feb 26 to push for a new truce.

While a brief extension is possible, the likelihood of a long-term arrangement – preventing the revival of fighting – seems remote.

Both sides have preconditions that make it hard to reach a permanent resolution. Israel’s leaders say they will end the war once Hamas no longer exerts military and political power in the Gaza Strip. Hamas has indicated it could give up some civil responsibilities, but its leaders have largely dismissed the idea of disarmament, at least in public.

Here is how we got here, and what could happen next.

What was supposed to happen?

The deal struck in the final days of the Biden administration allowed for an initial six-week truce, which ends on March 1. The sides agreed to use that time to gradually exchange roughly 1,500 Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails for 33 hostages captured by Hamas and its allies during their raid that ignited the war in October 2023.

The two sides were supposed to use the six weeks to negotiate the terms for a permanent truce that would have begun as soon as March 2. Those negotiations were expected to focus on who should govern post-war Gaza, as well as the release of roughly 60 other hostages.

`Though punctured by disruptions, most of the exchanges have gone roughly to plan. The negotiations for a second phase have not. They have yet to begin in earnest – even though, under the terms of the January agreement, they were supposed to conclude by Feb 23.

That failure is partly because, according to the agreement, the truce can only formally roll over if both sides agree to end the war. But Israel and Hamas have such differing visions of a postwar Gaza that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been unwilling to even restart talks.

Do Hamas and Israel want to restart the war?

Weak and isolated, Hamas has avoided explicit calls for a resumption in hostilities, even if the group has made war more likely by refusing to surrender.

By contrast, Mr Netanyahu directly stated on Feb 23 that Israel was ready to resume fighting if Hamas would not disarm itself voluntarily. In a speech to soldiers, Mr Netanyahu said he was only open to negotiations on the terms of Hamas’ surrender.

Many Israelis want the prime minister to agree to an extended truce in order to free the remaining hostages, even if it comes at the expense of keeping Hamas in power. But Mr Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition allies see a defeat of Hamas as a bigger national priority and are pressing him to restart the conflict.

Is Israel getting ready for a new offensive?

The Israeli military has already made extensive preparations for a new and intense campaign in Gaza, according to three defense officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak more freely.

The officials said the new operations would include the targeting of Hamas officials who siphon off aid supplies meant for civilians, as well as the destruction of buildings and infrastructure used by the Hamas-run civilian government.

While the plan has yet to be approved by the Israeli Cabinet, two of the officials said they believed that only President Donald Trump could dissuade Mr Netanyahu from renewed war.

What does Trump want?

The President has made several competing demands in recent weeks, variously calling for sustained peace, renewed war, as well as the expulsion of Gaza’s two million residents. The clearest recent signal from his administration was that it was seeking a temporary extension to the truce, perhaps involving a few more hostage-for-prisoner exchanges.

On Feb 23, Mr Witkoff said in an interview with CNN that he would return to the region on Feb 26 to prolong the truce’s first phase. He later told CBS that he would spend five days touring Egypt, Israel, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to build momentum toward an extension. Mr Witkoff also said he believed it was possible to achieve a longer agreement.

If there’s no extension, will fighting immediately resume?

Not necessarily. The initial deal said that the “temporary cessation of hostilities” could be sustained beyond the March 1 deadline, as long as Israel and Hamas were still negotiating over the terms of a permanent ceasefire. That allows for some wiggle room: If the sides do return to negotiations over a formal extension, the truce can technically continue even if the talks are far from a resolution.

Still, there will be fewer guardrails to keep the truce from collapsing. During the initial ceasefire, the sides were motivated to sustain the deal through several crises because every passing week allowed for the exchange of more captives. That arrangement that suited both Israel and Hamas – every liberated hostage brought relief to the Israeli population, while Hamas’ prestige was bolstered among Palestinians every time a prisoner was released.

Those swops are set to end on Feb 27, with the release of four more Israelis, most likely captives who have died, for several hundred Palestinians. Unless new exchanges are arranged, both Hamas and Israel will have fewer reasons to keep the truce going.

When is the truce’s biggest stress test?

There is particular concern about what happens after March 8.

In the January deal, Israel agreed to withdraw its forces by that date from the Gaza-Egypt border. But Mr Netanyahu explicitly said in 2024 that Israel would never pull back from the area, known in Israel as the Philadelphi Corridor, leading to predictions that he would break the terms of the ceasefire.

If those forces do not withdraw, Israeli defence officials say they expect that Hamas may fire rockets at Israel, giving Israel a pretext to retaliate. NYTIMES