Gaza deaths in war’s first 15 months higher than reported, says study

JERUSALEM – More than 75,000 Palestinians were

killed in the first 15 months of Israel’s military assault

in Gaza, a figure far higher than the 49,000 deaths local health officials announced at the time, says a new study by The Lancet Global Health medical journal.

The peer-reviewed study, published on Feb 18, found that women, children and the elderly comprised about 56.2 per cent of violent deaths in Gaza in that period, a figure it said roughly aligned with Gaza’s Health Ministry’s reporting.

The fieldwork was conducted by the Palestinian Centre for Policy and Survey Research, run by Palestinian pollster Khalil Shikaki, who has carried out public opinion polling in the West Bank and Gaza for decades. The lead author is Professor Michael Spagat, who teaches at Royal Holloway in the University of London.

The study is the first independent population survey of mortality in the Gaza Strip, said its authors, whose research involved surveying 2,000 Palestinian households over seven days from Dec 30, 2024.

“The combined evidence suggests that, as at Jan 5, 2025, 3 to 4 per cent of the population of the Gaza Strip had been killed violently and there have been a substantial number of non-violent deaths caused indirectly by the conflict,” the authors wrote.

UN has long deemed ministry figures to be reliable

The Gaza death toll has been bitterly disputed since Israel’s assault began after the

Hamas-led Oct 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel.

The Gaza health authorities, whose figures the UN has long deemed reliable, report more than 72,000 killed and estimate thousands more bodies remain uncounted beneath destroyed buildings 28 months later.

Israel has questioned those tallies, citing Hamas control of the ministry, though a senior military officer told Israeli media in January that its figures were broadly accurate – a view the army later said did not reflect official data.

Lancet researchers said their analysis contradicts claims of inflation and suggests that the ministry numbers are, if anything, conservative under extreme conditions.

Mortality calculation based on face-to-face interviews

Researchers who published a statistical analysis in 2025 for The Lancet, its flagship journal, found that the Health Ministry likely undercounted deaths by about 40 per cent during the first nine months of the war. The new research published on Feb 18 appears to suggest an undercount by a similar margin.

Field staff, mostly female and experienced in surveying, held face-to-face interviews with Palestinians from households in Gaza’s different districts, the authors wrote. The questionnaire, reviewed by Reuters, asks respondents to list individuals in their immediate household who were killed.

“We calculated mortality estimates as weighted sums. Each individual in the sample received a weight representing the number of people in the Gaza Strip they represent,” the authors wrote.

The authors wrote that the survey was the first on Gaza mortality that did not rely on administrative records from the Health Ministry. They said their results on violent deaths had a 95 per cent confidence interval, a value that indicates how accurately a pollster has captured a data point.

There were an estimated 16,300 non-violent deaths during the first 15 months of the war, caused by disease, pre-existing conditions, accidents or other causes not directly related to combat, the authors wrote. These are separate from the 75,200 violent deaths estimated during that period.

Hamas-led militants killed more than 1,200 people and took over 250 hostages during their 2023 attack on southern Israel, according to Israeli tallies. The hostages and the remains of those killed in captivity were released during ceasefires.

Hamas has confirmed the deaths of military leaders in fighting with Israel but has rarely disclosed fatalities among its fighters. REUTERS