Gaza ceasefire traps Israel PM Netanyahu between US President Trump and far-right allies
Sign up now: Get ST's newsletters delivered to your inbox
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's balancing act between his far-right allies and the White House stretches beyond Gaza.
PHOTO: REUTERS
Follow topic:
JERUSALEM – Even before it was signed, the Gaza ceasefire forced Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu into a tight spot – between a new US president promising peace and far-right allies who want war to resume. That tension is only likely to increase.
The stakes for Mr Netanyahu are high – keeping his coalition government on the one hand, and on the other, satisfying US President Donald Trump, who wants to use the ceasefire momentum to expand Israel’s diplomatic ties in the Middle East.
One of Mr Netanyahu’s nationalist allies has already quit over the Gaza ceasefire and another is threatening to follow unless war on Hamas is resumed at an even greater force than that which devastated much of Gaza for 15 months.
The clock is ticking. The first stage of the ceasefire is meant to last six weeks.
By day 16 (Feb 4), Israel and Palestinian militant group Hamas are due to start negotiating the second phase of the ceasefire, whose stated aim is to end the war.
Former police minister Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Jewish Power party quit the government on Jan 19
“We must go back in a completely different style. We need to conquer Gaza, instate a military rule there, even if temporarily, to start encouraging (Palestinian) emigration, to start taking territory from our enemies and to win,” Mr Smotrich said in an interview with Channel 14 on Jan 19.
Mr Trump’s Middle East envoy, Mr Steve Witkoff, however, said on Jan 22 he was focused on ensuring the deal moves from the first to second phase, which is expected to include a complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza.
“Netanyahu is pressed between the far-right and Donald Trump,” said Mr Amotz Asa-El, a political analyst with the Shalom Hartman Institute in Jerusalem. “Netanyahu’s coalition is now fragile and the likelihood that it will fall apart some time in the course of 2025 is high.”
Mr Netanyahu’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Mr Witkoff told Fox News on Jan 22 that he will be on the ground overseeing the ceasefire
According to six US, Israeli, Egyptian and other Middle Eastern officials who spoke to Reuters in the run-up to the ceasefire announcement on Jan 15, Mr Witkoff played a crucial role in getting the deal over the line.
Mr Netanyahu’s balancing act between his far-right allies and the White House stretches beyond Gaza.
After the ceasefire was struck, Mr Trump said he would build on the deal’s momentum to expand the Abraham Accords, a series of agreements reached during his first term that saw Israel normalise ties with Gulf Arab countries. He said on Jan 20 he sees Saudi Arabia joining.
That strategic goal is shared by Mr Netanyahu. But that cannot happen if war in Gaza is raging, said Mr Eyal Hulata, who headed Israel’s National Security Council from 2021 to 2023.
“If the Gaza war does not end, it is impossible to make progress with Saudi Arabia. And Mr Trump really wants to complete the expansion of normalisation. It is high on his foreign policy agenda.”
Complicating matters further for Mr Netanyahu, Saudi Arabia has made Palestinian statehood a condition for normalising ties with Israel. Mr Smotrich, and others in Mr Netanyahu’s government, are fiercely opposed to that.
Still, progress with Riyadh may be seen by the year’s end, an Israeli diplomatic official told Reuters, though talks on the second phase of the Gaza ceasefire will likely prove difficult.
Around 70 per cent of Israelis support the Gaza deal, according to a poll published on Jan 23 by Israel’s Institute for National Security Studies, and 61 per cent support incorporating it into a broader accord that includes Saudi Arabia.
The ceasefire’s first phase includes the release of hostages
The second phase, if it happens, would include the release of the remaining hostages and the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces. A third phase is expected to start Gaza’s reconstruction, overseen by Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations.
One of the most difficult issues involved in negotiating the next phases is post-war Gaza’s governance. Israel won’t accept Hamas staying in power. Hamas so far has not given ground.
Mr Trump’s national security adviser, Mr Mike Waltz, said on Jan 19 that Hamas will never govern Gaza and if it reneges on the deal, Washington will support Israel “in doing what it has to do”.
On Jan 18, after his government signed off on the ceasefire, Mr Netanyahu said Israel had US backing to resume fighting if the second stage talks prove futile, leaving himself some political leeway with Mr Smotrich for now.
“If we need to go back to the fighting, we will do so in new ways and with great force,” Mr Netanyahu said in a video statement. REUTERS
