Can Israel end its war with Hamas with a new push into Gaza City?

JERUSALEM - Israel’s government has ordered a military takeover of Gaza City in what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu described as a final push to topple Hamas after almost two years of war.

The decision was followed by an Aug 20 announcement by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) that it was calling up around 60,000 reserve soldiers.

The takeover plan is controversial among some of Israel’s main allies in Europe, who worry about further harm to Gazan civilians, and among many Israelis, who fear such an operation will endanger the lives of their country’s soldiers and the remaining hostages in Gaza.

Critics of the plan are calling for an immediate truce.

Hamas said on Aug 18 it had accepted a ceasefire proposal from Egypt and Qatar that Israel has not yet responded to.

Mr Netanyahu said Hamas’ acceptance showed the group was “under immense pressure” and wary of the looming Gaza City offensive. That raised the possibility that Israel was, at least to some degree, saber-rattling in an effort to generate a diplomatic alternative closer to its terms.

How has Gaza City been affected by the war so far?

The Gaza Strip’s de-facto capital has seen limited Israeli incursions in the war so far. It is part of the 25 per cent of the territory that Israeli ground forces have largely skirted out of concern for the well-being of hostages believed to be kept there by Hamas fighters.

The conflict broke out on Oct 7, 2023 when Hamas – considered a terrorist group by the US and many other countries – attacked Israel from Gaza, killing 1,200 people and abducting 250.

The subsequent fighting in Gaza has killed more than 62,000 Palestinians, according to the Hamas-run health ministry, which does not distinguish between civilians and fighters, and more than 450 Israeli soldiers, according to the IDF.

While Gaza City has not been spared the displacement and privation suffered by Palestinians, parts of it retain some semblance of normal life. Structural damage is widespread, but many neighborhoods remain intact, in contrast to other Gazan cities that have been flattened by Israeli bombs and bulldozers. Food markets and some schools function.

Gaza City’s pre-war population of about 800,000 has been swollen to about a million by Palestinians who fled fighting in outlying districts such as Jabalya and Beit Hanoun. They have been living with relatives, in UN shelters or in shuttered schools.

There are four partially functioning hospitals in Gaza City, one of which, Shifa, was stormed and searched by the IDF in 2024.

What is Israel’s Gaza City takeover plan?

Israeli officials have been closed-lipped about their tactics. That could be due to efforts to gather intelligence on locations of 50 hostages still held in Gaza, 20 of whom are thought to be alive and at risk of execution by their captors. 

According to Mr Eli Cohen, a member of Mr Netanyahu’s security Cabinet, the focus of Israel’s military operation will be a core of Gaza City measuring 20 sq km, approximately the size of a provincial town in the West.

Speaking to Israel’s Channel 14 TV, Mr Cohen said the IDF was given six to eight weeks to convince or compel Palestinian civilians to leave Gaza City before the main assault begins. That suggested the IDF will storm the city by early October, roughly coinciding with the war’s second anniversary. 

The offensive stage of the operation will take “months, not years,” Ms Gila Gamliel, another security Cabinet minister, told Tel Aviv radio station 103 FM.

According to Israel’s Army Radio, five IDF divisions would be needed to take Gaza City, necessitating the call-up of tens of thousands of reservists. Mobilising reinforcements on such a scale generally takes one to two weeks.  

What are the goals of the Gaza City plan?

The goals of the operation, as stated by Mr Netanyahu, are to defeat Hamas, strip Palestinians in Gaza of weaponry, and recover all hostages – dead or alive.

Achieving that may require moving on from Gaza City, once the operation there is complete, to other townships that have been spared previous sweeps – unless Hamas surrenders first or an end-of-war deal is negotiated. 

What are the challenges to achieving those goals?

Hamas in Gaza City is commanded by Mr Izz al-Din al-Haddad, the last veteran, high-ranking fighter to survive Israel’s offensive. He is also the overall Hamas chief, having succeeded slain leader Mohammed Sinwar in May.

Mr Al-Haddad is widely expected by Israeli forces to mount a stubborn and sophisticated defence of Gaza City, aware of the significance of its fall and of his own death or capture.

Israeli officials estimate that today Hamas has 20,000 fighters – compared with a pre-war figure of roughly 35,000. Though many of them are inexperienced and undertrained new recruits, Hamas has a network of tunnels and bunkers, as well as elevated gun nests on balconies and rooftops, to mount hit-and-run ambushes on Israeli ground forces.

Unlike in other areas of the Gaza Strip, Hamas still retains military-grade weaponry – such as assault rifles, rocket-propelled grenades and mines – in Gaza City.

The Iran-backed group is likely to try to capture soldiers in order to add to the hostage tally and depress Israeli morale. Hamas has threatened to shoot hostages rather than see them rescued.

After many months of bitter urban battles, the Israelis have developed new methods, including for tackling tunnels. They may try to level the playing field by knocking down buildings with air strikes, though that could depend on whether civilians are successfully moved out first.

Hamas has urged residents of Gaza City to stay put.

Even if there is an exodus, it could include Hamas fighters, and perhaps hostages, disguised as civilians. It will be a challenge for the IDF to screen people while encouraging a mass movement to displaced-persons camps in southern Gaza. 

What do critics of the plan say?

World powers and Middle East countries have condemned the Gaza City plan as a needless protraction of the war that will deepen civilian suffering and starvation in Gaza.

Much of the censure hinges on concern that the plan heralds a return to Israeli occupation of the territory.

Mr Netanyahu insists that Israel, which unilaterally pulled soldiers and settlers out of the Gaza Strip in 2005, does not want to stay long-term and govern Palestinians there.

But his hazy projections about who might succeed Hamas in ruling the shattered enclave, and the fact that he relies on far-right coalition partners who want Gaza annexed and settled by Israelis, have dented his credibility abroad.

The US has said it backs Israel’s military plans and will help a new aid-distribution network, the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, cope with Palestinians displaced by the big advance.

But acknowledging the risks of the operation, US Ambassador Mike Huckabee told Piers Morgan Uncensored: “It could go sideways. I think everybody understands that there’s no guarantee that it will go well.” BLOOMBERG