After attacks, Israel and Hezbollah swiftly move to talk of containment

JERUSALEM – For weeks, Israelis have waited in trepidation for a major attack by Hezbollah

in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of a senior commander

of the Lebanese group in Beirut in July, amid widespread fears that a cross-border escalation could spiral into an all-out regional war.

But much of Israel woke up on Aug 25 to find that, at least for the immediate term, the long-dreaded attack appeared to be over almost before it started.

Israel and Hezbollah quickly claimed victories of sorts: Israel for its predawn pre-emptive strikes against what the military said were thousands of Hezbollah’s rocket launcher barrels in southern Lebanon, and Hezbollah for its subsequent firing of barrages of rockets and drones at northern Israel, which the Israeli military said killed a naval officer.

By breakfast time, the two sides were employing the language of containment.

Hezbollah announced that it had completed the “first stage” of its attack to avenge the assassination of the senior commander, Fouad Shukur, and appeared to be calling it a day, at least for now.

Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said he had spoken to US Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, and they had “discussed the importance of avoiding regional escalation”, according to a statement from Mr Gallant’s office.

Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah said in a speech on the evening of Aug 25 that his group had attacked an Israeli intelligence base, Glilot, just north of Tel Aviv. If the results of the attack on the base turned out to be satisfactory, he said, the militia would rest its case.

If it turned out to be a failure, he added, then Hezbollah reserved the right to respond at a later date.

After the attacks, the Middle East remained on edge, the days ahead uncertain.

“There can be stages,” said Mr Ehud Yaari, an Israel-based fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, a research group. “You can have escalation that is gradual.”

On the morning of Aug 25, the Israeli military said it was continuing to strike Hezbollah launchers in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah is estimated to possess tens of thousands of rockets and a smaller number of more sophisticated, precise missiles.

And Iran, Hezbollah’s patron, still has an open account with Israel, blaming it for

the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh

, the political leader of its ally Hamas, while he was in Tehran, just hours after the killing of Shukur. Israel officially took responsibility for Shukur’s death but not for Haniyeh’s.

In broadcast remarks delivered at the start of a government meeting in the afternoon on Aug 25, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the morning’s events were “not the end of the story”. But by then, life in Israel had largely returned to routine.

Based on intelligence, Israel took the decision to pre-empt Hezbollah’s attack on Aug 25 “but not to go beyond”, Mr Yaari said. The targets that Israel struck were all less than 48km inside Lebanon, he said. Israel said it was focused on thwarting the threat to Israeli forces and civilians from Hezbollah’s arsenal of rockets and drones, not its wider assets or infrastructure.

Hezbollah, for its part, appears to be “signalling that it is done for now”, Mr Yaari said. “At the same time, they are saying this was the first stage of retaliation, leaving open the option to do more, if they get a green light from the Iranians,” he added.

The events of Aug 25 have raised the stakes for negotiators gathering in Cairo to try to advance a ceasefire and hostage-release deal for the ongoing war in Gaza.

The US is leading the push

, along with Qatari and Egyptian mediators, for a deal that would end the 10-month conflict between Israel and Hamas, in the hope that such an agreement could help calm tensions in the region.

For months, Hezbollah and Israel have engaged in tit-for-tat cross-border clashes. Hezbollah began firing in solidarity with Hamas after last October’s Hamas-led assault on southern Israel prompted Israel to go to war in Gaza.

The exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah have grown in intensity in recent weeks, in what many analysts have described as a war of attrition.

An all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah would be devastating for both sides, experts say. Hezbollah’s rockets and missiles can reach much of Israel, and could paralyse parts of the country for weeks or months.

But the group must weigh its desire for revenge against the risks of a backlash at home in Lebanon, which is mired in political and economic turmoil.

Israel has long been readying for a war in Lebanon, and is probably much better prepared than it was on its southern front, where Hamas took it by surprise in October.

Mr Netanyahu said Israeli forces destroyed thousands of Hezbollah’s short-range rockets on Aug 25 and intercepted a swarm of drones that he said Hezbollah had launched at a strategic target in the centre of the country.

Tens of thousands of residents of the towns and villages on both sides of Israel’s border with Lebanon have been displaced from their homes for nearly 10 months.

“This is an additional step in changing the situation in the north and returning our residents securely to their homes,” Mr Netanyahu said of the actions of Aug 25. But no date has been set for their return. NYTIMES