A reality check on peace in Gaza

WASHINGTON – US President Donald Trump was effusive in his assessment of the ceasefire deal that, so far, has brought 20 hostages back to Israel and freed some 2,000 Palestinians from Israeli prisons: “It’s peace in the Middle East.”

When Secretary of State Marco Rubio called it “one of the most important days for world peace in 50 years”, Mr Trump retorted, “Only 50?”

“Maybe 100,” Mr Rubio said.

The reality on the ground is a little more complicated. I wanted to understand how close the hostage-prisoner exchange has brought the region to a lasting peace. (After all, we’ve seen something like this before.) So I called up my colleague David Halbfinger, who is in Jerusalem and covering the ceasefire closely.

Is everything going according to Trump’s plan so far?

Everything has happened according to plan in Phase 1. But Phase 1 is really the low-hanging fruit of this plan. There’s a good chance that this could be the high-water mark of this whole process.

What are the potential sticking points in the next phase?

Hamas has said it wants a full Israeli withdrawal. The Israelis are saying they’re not pulling out until they get everything that was in the Trump plan. So we have the ingredients for a standoff.

Israel and Mr Trump both want the Gaza Strip to be run by someone other than Hamas. But Hamas hasn’t agreed to lay down its weapons. So who steps into that breach? Israel refuses to entertain the idea of letting the Palestinian Authority go into Gaza. But then where will the Palestinian technocrats who are supposed to take charge under Mr Trump’s plan come from?

What is the security situation in Gaza at the moment? Who is maintaining order?

We’ve seen what looks like Hamas beginning to reassert itself on the ground in Gaza. I think they’re trying very hard to show that there is no vacuum.

What about this idea of international troops securing the ceasefire?

That is one of the most interesting ideas in the Trump plan: bringing in an international stabilisation force from a number of countries, including from the Arab world.

We’ve heard of everybody from the Emiratis to the Indonesians, the Turks, even the EU, being willing to take part. But will any of those countries want to come in and have to play the role of getting Hamas to turn over its weapons? Or are they going to wait for disarmament before they step in? And, how long will it take to train up this kind of force?

Everywhere you turn, there are these unresolved issues.

And yet some people describe this as the best hope for peace since the Oslo Accords.

The fact that you have

so many countries in the Arab and Muslim world backing the US

and its push not just for a ceasefire, but for a greater peace, is enormously promising. So there’s reason to see this as a promising moment. It’s just, again, easier to see this running into great difficulty than it is to see it accelerating from here.

All parties have a way to claim victory from this deal. Does that help improve the chance that it holds?

You’re right, everybody is declaring victory. Hamas certainly is. They’ve claimed they put the issue of Palestinian statehood back at the top of the international agenda, that

Israel is isolated

, that they have survived the war, that they returned nearly 2,000 Palestinians from Israeli prisons. And all of those things are true.

Israel can point to the fact that it has

brought home the hostages

and severely weakened Hamas. I don’t know how much Israel’s isolation on the world stage is also motivating Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to do what he’s doing.

But when the US, which is perhaps its last and certainly its most important ally, applied pressure, Israel came to the table.

And if the fighting pauses and worldwide attention turns elsewhere, I think Israelis will have a chance to assess just how much damage has been done to their country’s reputation. And they’re going to want to address that isolation. I mean, you heard Mr Netanyahu talk about making peace in a way he hasn’t ordinarily done.

So some cause for hope?

Yes, some cause for hope. NYTIMES