Immigration helped Trump win the White House - now tactics could hurt Republicans in midterms

WASHINGTON, Jan 28 - President Donald Trump's hardline immigration agenda, a key force behind his return to the White House in 2024, is increasingly showing signs of becoming a liability, threatening Republican prospects in the November midterm elections.

What was once his most potent campaign issue is now driving unease among voters unsettled by the administration’s aggressive tactics in its immigration crackdown, including the targeting of U.S. citizens and violent measures against peaceful protesters.

Illegal immigration and inflation were the twin issues that helped Trump win the election. Now, opinion polls show a growing number of Americans, including key independent voters, are unhappy with Trump's handling of both, putting Republicans on the defensive ahead of the midterms.

The polling shows most Republicans still back Trump’s push for mass deportations, but a sizeable minority are uneasy with a heavy-handed approach by federal immigration agents, which led to the shooting deaths of a mother of three and a nurse in Minneapolis this month.

Just 39% of Americans approve of Trump's handling of immigration, the lowest since his inauguration, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Monday. While 84% of Republican respondents said they support Trump on the issue, a fifth of them said federal agents had gone "too far" in their crackdown.

If those sentiments persist, they could spell trouble for Republicans in November, when Democrats are aiming to take control of Congress and block the president's agenda.

"This was one of the president's number one advantages and it has become a political liability for him," said John Feehery, a Republican strategist. "The base is still pretty comfortable with what Trump is doing. But it's not just about the base, it's about swing voters."

White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson defended the administration's approach to immigration.

"President Trump wants all Americans to feel safe in their communities. That guiding principle is why the President has promised to remove dangerous criminal illegal aliens from our country, urged local Democrat leaders to work with federal law enforcement, and called for a fact-based investigation into the tragic death of Mr. Pretti," she said in a statement.

Dubbed Operation Metro Surge, the December deployment of nearly 3,000 federal immigration agents to Minneapolis and St. Paul provoked a national uproar with the fatal shootings of Renee Good on January 7 and then Alex Pretti on January 24. Both were killed during confrontations with immigration agents at protests.

Trump has taken steps in recent days to ease tensions in Minneapolis, dispatching his border czar to oversee the operation and signaling a willingness to work with state officials.

It remains unclear whether these moves reflect a recognition of the political risks to Republicans in November midterms, or are simply an effort to regain control of an operation that has produced daily images of masked federal agents responding aggressively to protesters confronting them in the streets.

Trump spent the weekend huddling with senior advisers about how to recalibrate his immigration strategy, according to a White House official and a source familiar with the talks. The discussions included a possible reduction of agents deployed to Minnesota and narrowing the focus there to deportations rather than broad enforcement operations, the sources said.

Some Republican strategists warned that a renewed focus on deporting the “worst of the worst,” as Trump promised during the campaign, was necessary to retain support from moderate Republicans and independents in November.

"Americans support secure borders, and they're willing to forgive mistakes when you're cleaning up the previous administration's fiasco - provided you're seen as targeting criminals," said Giancarlo Sopo, a Republican media strategist who worked on Hispanic outreach for Trump's 2020 campaign.

"The margin for error narrows dramatically if you’re perceived as going after gardeners and taco truck ladies."

SOME REPUBLICAN OFFICIALS PUSH BACK

Trump's softening of his tone and sidelining of Gregory Bovino - a top Border Patrol official and a lightning rod for opponents of the crackdown - followed days of criticism from a number of Republican lawmakers and governors.

A Republican candidate for Minnesota governor, Chris Madel, made headlines for his decision to quit the race over the tactics being used by federal agents in Minneapolis and what he described as indiscriminate arrests.

Zach Duckworth, a Republican state senator who was recently activated in the Minnesota Army National Guard to support local law enforcement, said he was so alarmed by top Trump officials labeling Pretti a "domestic terrorist" that he wrote to FBI Director Kash Patel, Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem, and others to object to the characterization.

He told Reuters that was a "tipping point," saying many of his constituents in the Minneapolis suburbs are centrists and support removing violent criminals, but are alarmed by the scope and tactics of Trump’s operations, which have also swept up people in the country legally.

Democratic strategists see opportunity for their party, which polls show is not trusted by most Americans to handle immigration, especially after former President Joe Biden's slow reaction to stem immigrants entering the country illegally.

Michael LaRosa, a former Biden White House official, told Reuters the overwhelming opposition by Democrats to Trump's crackdown would help to drive both progressive and moderate voters to the polls in November.

While an increasing number of traditional, moderate Republicans now oppose Trump's immigration crackdown, Democrats are at risk of misdiagnosing the moment and overplaying their hand, said Scott Rasmussen, a veteran pollster.

"Where the left is making a mistake on this issue is they think they're winning a fight to build support for illegal immigrants," Rasmussen said. "Where the right, especially the MAGA right, is wrong, is they are thinking everybody voted for what's happening in Minneapolis."

In interviews with eight Trump supporters in Delano, a Republican-leaning town just 10 miles (16 km) west of downtown Minneapolis, all said they stood squarely behind the president's immigration crackdown and would vote Republican in the midterms.

But they also acknowledged that immigration agents appeared poorly trained and ill-prepared for the task before them, and expressed worries that widespread criticism of ICE's tactics could hurt Republicans at the ballot box.

Jake Blackowiak, 33, worried the controversy could contribute to the party losing at least one chamber of Congress in the midterms.

"The Republicans aren't going to be able to pass any more laws or advance the agenda he promised," he said.

Former Republican Minnesota congressman Gil Gutknecht urged the White House to clarify its enforcement targets.

"To say that all the people who are being rounded up are violent criminals is an exaggeration," Gutknecht said in an interview. "They're not all murderers and rapists."

He said it was too early to tell whether the deaths in Minnesota would impact the midterms, but the White House should continue its immigration enforcement operation. REUTERS