‘Ice Queen’ no more: Mexico’s Sheinbaum charms Trump on tariffs

MEXICO CITY – Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum’s dispassionate style on the campaign trail was once seen as such a political weakness that her opponent in the 2024 presidential election branded her “The Ice Queen”.

But months into a trade dispute with US President Donald Trump, Ms Sheinbaum’s calculated and technocratic approach to politics suddenly appears to be a crucial strength.

Her demeanour has proved to mesh well with her unpredictable neighbour, whose tariff threats have been met with ire by Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.

After talking with Ms Sheinbaum by phone on March 6, Mr Trump announced that he would pause 25 per cent tariffs on any Mexican goods and services that fall under the North American trade agreement known as the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement until April 2. It was a decision he made “as an accommodation and out of respect for President Sheinbaum”, he said in a social media post. 

“Our relationship has been a very good one,” he continued, saying that Mexico and the US were working hard to address migration and drug issues along their shared border. 

It was the second time in as many months that Ms Sheinbaum, who has maintained a cooperative stance in response to Mr Trump’s tariff threats, secured such a delay by charming the US President in a phone call.

And while the US later delivered the same reprieve to Canada, Mr Trump’s respectful tone toward Ms Sheinbaum stood in sharp contrast to his reactions to foreign leaders that have confronted him directly – including Mr Trudeau and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Just a day earlier, Mr Trump had dismissed Canada’s efforts to avoid similar tariffs after a phone call with Mr Trudeau, saying on social media that Canada’s Prime Minister had “largely caused the problems we have with them because of his Weak Border Policies”. Despite Mr Trump’s claims, very small amounts of fentanyl are found by agents at or near the US-Canada border, US government statistics show.

It was also another early victory for a Mexican president who took office in 2024 facing scepticism about whether she had the mettle to stand up to Mr Trump the way more pugnacious – and overwhelmingly male – global counterparts might.

That she was taking over for Mr Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, whose penchant for political showmanship turned him into an enduringly popular figure, only deepened the questions facing Mexico’s first female leader.

But much like in February, Ms Sheinbaum’s ability to reach a deal rested heavily on the cool-headed approach she has maintained throughout the battle, as well as the increasing composure and skill she has displayed as political communicator.

At least for now, Ms Sheinbaum has succeeded in simultaneously placating Mr Trump and convincing the Mexican people – among whom she enjoys overwhelming popularity – that she is defending their interests in a fight with a much more powerful neighbour.

After agreeing to send 10,000 National Guard members to the border as part of the agreement in February, Ms Sheinbaum this time pitched Mr Trump on the idea that Mexico’s actions are working. She cited US Customs and Border Protection data detailing a steady drop in fentanyl seizures on the US side of the border.

“I told him, ‘We’re showing results, President Trump’,” Ms Sheinbaum said at her daily news conference following the call.

“I told him that I understood his concern about the US deficit, but that it was better to continue working together and having a dialogue. And I have to say, we were treated with a great deal of respect.”

It was typical Sheinbaum, a politician trained as an engineer who often seems more suited to the quiet life of academia – a past profession – than the hardscrabble battles of the geopolitical present. 

Asked during the election how she dealt with her opponent, Ms Sheinbaum told a radio reporter that her strategy was “not to fall for provocations”.

She has taken a similar approach to Mr Trump, refusing to engage in rhetorical fights and insisting that she would wait for the details of US proposals before reacting to each one.

Alongside her economic ministers, Ms Sheinbaum has regularly used daily morning press conferences to make professorial presentations about how tariffs on Mexican goods will hammer the US economy and consumers, detailing price effects on automobiles and other products.

While careful to avoid the perception that she is becoming “subordinate” to the US, Ms Sheinbaum has repeatedly pitched herself as a partner rather than adversary. She has even spoken English on the phone with Mr Trump, a skill honed while living in the US that has helped build rapport between them.

She stuck to that approach even when Mr Trump’s tariffs went into effect earlier this week despite Mexico’s efforts to placate Washington by weighing its own levies on Chinese goods and extraditing 29 Mexicans accused of crimes in the US. 

Unlike Canada, Mexico did not immediately place billions of dollars in reciprocal levies on US products. Instead, Ms Sheinbaum said she would wait until this weekend to respond – time that gave her a chance to speak directly with Mr Trump first.

It remains far from certain whether Mexico will ultimately succeed in avoiding the tariffs altogether, or what it would take to do so.

While Ms Sheinbaum’s strategy appears to be working now, Mr Trudeau’s tougher approach against tariffs could still prevail in the long run, especially with Canadians increasingly waging their own boycotts of US companies and goods.

And while Ms Sheinbaum has won admirers in places like Brazil, she for now remains caught in a situation in which month-to-month negotiations are clouding her government. It is a situation that is fueling uncertainty among investors and putting Mexico’s broader strategy of supercharging its economy through foreign investment and boosted exports at risk.

“Trump’s maximum leverage strategy is to have Mexico and Canada walking on tip-toe from month to month, in order to get the greatest number of concessions,” said Mr Diego Marroquin, a researcher of North American trade at the Wilson Centre in Washington.

“To attract investment, you need certainty, and it’s impossible to have it  if you don’t know the rules of the game from here to two weeks (from now).” BLOOMBERG