How the US under Trump fits into China-Taiwan tensions

WASHINGTON – Wealthy, democratic and strategically located off the Chinese coast, Taiwan has long been the most volatile issue between the US and China.

The US has helped arm Taiwan and, under former US president Joe Biden, made clear it would defend the self-ruling democracy in the event of an invasion. All the while, China has intensified military exercises off its coast, which President Xi Jinping views as his country’s lost territory destined for unification.

Under President Donald Trump – whose transactional approach to foreign policy has often left allies unsure of where they stand – Washington’s backing of Taiwan no longer looks guaranteed.

In February, he declined to say whether it was US policy to stop China from taking the island by force.

More recently, however, Mr Trump said Mr Xi

“understands what will happen” if the People’s Liberation Army attempts an invasion

, a comment that likely offered some relief in Taipei.

Why is Taiwan so important?

Empires have jockeyed over Taiwan for centuries, with occupations by the Spanish, Dutch and China’s Qing dynasty. After the Qing’s surrender of Taiwan to the Japanese following a humiliating military defeat in 1895, later generations of Chinese, including Mr Xi’s, adopted “reunification” as a rallying cry.

Although China’s Communist Party has never ruled Taiwan, it views control over the island as essential to completing its goal of reversing China’s “century of humiliation” by colonial powers. Mr Xi has shown a willingness to assert such sovereignty claims from the South China Sea to the Himalayan Plateau and Hong Kong.

To the US and Japan, Taiwan is a vital stronghold in a string of archipelagos that they rely upon to contain China and safeguard trade routes.

Taiwan has thrived under American protection to become a critical supplier of semiconductors and other high-tech goods. Today, the island of 23.5 million people is also among Asia’s most vibrant democracies, a rejoinder to Communist Party arguments that Western political structures are incompatible with Chinese culture.

Why is the island in dispute?

The dispute dates back to 1949 when Chiang Kai-shek – leader of the Nationalist Party that ruled China after the overthrow of the Qing dynasty in 1912 – abandoned the mainland and retreated to Taiwan after being defeated by Mao Zedong’s Communists during the Chinese Civil War.

The US backed Chiang as China’s rightful leader until then US President Richard Nixon sought to establish ties with Beijing in the 1970s.

The result was the “One China policy”, in which Washington recognised the People’s Republic as the “sole legal government of China”, without clarifying its position on Taiwan’s sovereignty.

China agreed to tolerate informal US relations with Taipei, including arms sales under certain conditions, but has since affirmed the right to take Taiwan by force to prevent its formal independence.

Polls reveal a steadily rising share of Taiwanese in favour of independence – the thing that is most likely to provoke a military move by China on the island. About a quarter of the population supported immediate or eventual independence, according to a June survey, with less than 7 per cent favouring unification with China.

Why have tensions over Taiwan grown in recent years?

Between 1949 and the late 1980s, relations between China and Taiwan were defined by military hostility, limited contact and competing claims by each ruling authority that it was the sole legitimate government of China.

In the following decades, hostility started to give way to cautious engagement, along with trade and investment. Periods of tension alternated with warmer ties under leaders who embraced more economic cooperation.

The 2016 election in Taiwan of then President Tsai Ing-wen upended Beijing’s prior efforts to deepen economic and social ties with the island.

Ms Tsai’s Democratic Progressive Party rejected the notion that Taiwan was part of China and sought greater US ties to reduce reliance on the mainland. Beijing responded to the election outcome by cutting off communication; curbing travel between Taiwan and mainland China; resuming efforts to lure away countries that were supportive of Taiwan diplomatically; and pressing multinationals to revise policies to not treat it as a country.

In May 2024, Ms Tsai was succeeded by her Vice-President, Dr Lai Ching-te, who once described himself as a “political worker for Taiwanese independence” – although he has since toned down that position.

Dr Lai has vowed to continue working with the US and other democracies to maintain the status quo. He has also indicated he would stand up to the challenges posed by China.

Beijing’s deep distrust of Dr Lai has led to unprecedented pressure from China, which conducted three large-scale military drills around the island during Dr Lai’s first year in power – a record number for any Taiwanese president’s tenure.

China also significantly ramped up military incursions across the median line of the Taiwan Strait, the de facto border between the two sides drawn by the US. The average daily number of such incursions in the first year of Dr Lai’s presidency more than doubled compared with the previous year.

In mid-October 2024, Taiwan reported that China flew a record 111 warplanes across a US-drawn boundary in the strait separating the two sides, which coincided with Beijing holding large-scale military drills around the island.

Officials from Beijing have asserted in meetings with their American counterparts that the Taiwan Strait does not belong to “international waters”, fuelling concerns that Beijing might become more assertive in trying to deter the US Navy from sailing in the waterway.

China has also sanctioned a former US congressman who supported Taipei and hit US defence companies with ties to or investments in Taiwan with symbolic sanctions.

How have US-Taiwan relations changed in recent years?

During his first term as president, Mr Trump presided over a dramatic expansion of ties with the government in Taipei.

He oversaw US$18.65 billion (S$24.3 billion) in weapons deals with Taiwan and approved the sale of the first US fighter jets to Taiwan in three decades. The Republican leader also signed legislation allowing high-level US officials to visit.

The subsequent administration largely maintained that shift in relations.

Then President Joe Biden even stated repeatedly that the US would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, a significant departure from the traditional US policy of “strategic ambiguity”, which had aimed to deter China by being vague about American intentions.

What is Trump’s stance on Taiwan?

Since beginning his second presidential term, Mr Trump has cast doubt on a US commitment to defend Taiwan.

On Feb 27, when asked by a reporter, he refused to say whether it was the policy of his administration to prevent China from taking control of Taiwan by force. During his election campaign, he also suggested that Taiwan “should pay us for defence”.

In July, more doubts emerged over the strength of Taiwan-US relations when Dr Lai appeared to cancel an overseas visit to allies in Latin America after the Trump administration declined to approve his request to make a stopover in New York.

Mr Trump’s announcement of a 20 per cent “reciprocal tariff” on US imports of Taiwanese goods was another blow to the island and Dr Lai’s leadership, given that regional competitors such as Japan and South Korea received a lower rate.

Depending on the outcome, a pending US trade probe into whether certain imports threaten national security could also affect Taiwan’s vital technology exports, which have so far been largely exempt from the reciprocal tariffs. 

In September, the Washington Post reported that Mr Trump had declined to approve a military aid package for Taiwan worth more than US$400 million as he sought to reach a trade deal with Beijing.

It added to concerns in Taiwan and among its supporters in the US that the Trump administration may be willing to sacrifice the island’s interests to pursue closer engagement with China.

In the same month, Beijing, in a sign that it may have been trying to capitalise on such a moment, asked the Trump administration to officially “oppose” Taiwan’s independence, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The suggested wording was stronger than the previous administration’s statement that US officials “do not support” the self-ruled island seeking formal independence.

Mr Trump has not announced any decision on such a concession, which would mark a major diplomatic victory for Beijing and aid its campaign to isolate Taiwan on the world stage.

After reaching a trade truce with the US, China in early November called on the US to avoid what it called Beijing’s four red lines – sensitive issues the US should refrain from meddling in to maintain stable ties. Among them was Taiwan.

But Mr Trump has kept the world guessing about his stance on Taiwan.

In a Nov 2 interview with CBS’ 60 Minutes, Mr Trump said Mr Xi “understands what will happen” if the People’s Liberation Army tries to invade Taiwan. Mr Trump added that Mr Xi and other Chinese officials have told him they would never move against Taiwan while he was president “because they know the consequences”. BLOOMBERG