Harris widens lead over Trump with boost from women, Hispanics, poll finds

WASHINGTON - Democrat Kamala Harris leads Republican Donald Trump 45 per cent to 41 per cent in a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Aug 29 that showed the vice-president sparking new enthusiasm among voters and shaking up the race ahead of the Nov 5 election.

The 4 percentage point advantage among registered voters was wider than a 1 point lead Ms Harris held over the former president in a late July Reuters/Ipsos poll.

The new poll, which was conducted in the eight days ended Aug 28 and had a 2 percentage point margin of error, showed Ms Harris picking up support among women and Hispanics.

Ms Harris led Trump by 49 per cent to 36 per cent - or 13 percentage points - among both women voters and Hispanic voters. Across four Reuters/Ipsos polls conducted in July, Ms Harris had a 9 point lead among women and a 6 point lead among Hispanics. 

Trump led among white voters and men, both by similar margins as in July, though his lead among voters without a college degree narrowed to 7 points in the latest survey, down from 14 points in July.

The findings illustrate how the US presidential race has been shaken up over the summer. President Joe Biden, 81,

folded his flailing campaign on July 21

after a disastrous debate performance against Trump sparked widespread calls from his fellow Democrats to abandon his re-election bid.

Since then, Ms Harris has gained ground against Trump in national polls and those in critical swing states. While national surveys including Reuters/Ipsos' give important signals on the views of the electorate, the state-by-state results of the Electoral College determine the winner, with a handful of battleground states likely to be decisive.

In the seven states where the 2020 election was closest - Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan and Nevada - Trump had a 45 per cent to 43 per cent lead over Ms Harris among registered voters in the poll.

"It's obvious that running against Harris is more challenging for Trump given the shift in these numbers, but it's certainly not insurmountable," said Mr Matt Wolking, a Republican campaign strategist who worked on Trump's 2020 campaign. He said Trump needs to stay as focused as possible in his campaign "so he's not scaring" away voters who were leaning his way because they didn't like Mr Biden.

Since formally accepting the Democratic nomination last week, Ms Harris has embarked on a tour of battleground states including Georgia, where Mr Biden had been hemorrhaging support before he ended his campaign.

Rising enthusiasm

Some 73 per cent of Democratic registered voters in the poll said they were more excited about voting in November after Ms Harris entered the race. And while a March Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 61 per cent of respondents who intended to vote for Mr Biden were doing so mainly to stop Trump, 52 per cent of Ms Harris voters in the August poll were voting to support her as a candidate rather than primarily to oppose Trump.

"We see it in this poll that people are more motivated about the future than the past," said Ms Aimee Allison, founder of She The People, a liberal group that aims to grow the numbers of women of colour in elected office. "They see Kamala Harris as the future, and Republicans see this election as just about Trump. Voters are more likely to be engaged when given the option of 'more than' beating Trump."

But Trump voters also voiced enthusiasm about their candidate, with 64 per cent saying their choice was more motivated by backing Trump than opposing Ms Harris.

Voters picked Trump as having a better approach to managing the US economy, 45 per cent to 36 per cent, a wider margin than Trump had in another Reuters/Ipsos poll this week.

Ms Harris, by contrast, had a 47 per cent to 31 per cent advantage on abortion policy. The issue is salient for Democrats after the conservative US Supreme Court in 2022

struck down women's national right to abortion.

Trump nominated three conservative justices to the court during his 2017-2021 presidency. Some 41 per cent of voters in the poll - and 70 per cent of Democrats - said they were worried the next president might sign a national ban on abortions. 

The latest poll's survey period partially overlapped with the Aug 19-22 Democratic National Convention in Chicago where Ms Harris formally

accepted her party's nomination,

and it remains to be seen whether the same level of enthusiasm for Ms Harris will continue.

The poll was conducted nationally and gathered responses from 4,253 US adults, including 3,562 registered voters. 

Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr, who

suspended his campaign

on Aug 23 while the poll was still being conducted, had the support of 6 per cent of voters in the survey. REUTERS