LONDON – The Israel-Hamas war, ongoing fighting in Ukraine and rising tensions in the Indo-Pacific and Africa herald “what is likely to be a more dangerous decade”, a British military think-tank has warned.

The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said in its annual Military Balance report that the world has entered “a highly volatile security environment”, which is set to endure.

“The current military-security situation heralds what is likely to be a more dangerous decade, characterised by the brazen application by some of military power to pursue claims,” the report said.

It also noted “the desire among like-minded democracies for stronger bilateral and multilateral defence ties in response”.

The “era of insecurity” is resetting the global defence-industrial landscape, with the United States and Europe ramping up production of missiles and ammunition “after decades of underinvestment”, the report added.

As the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looms, the London-based IISS reported that Moscow had lost around 3,000 battle tanks in the conflict, roughly the same number it had at the beginning of its operation.

The IISS said Russia has been forced to trade “quality for quantity” in its efforts to replace tanks lost since it invaded its neighbour to the west in February 2022.

“Ukraine, so far, has been able to offset equipment losses through Western donations, upgrading quality in the process,” added the think-tank in its yearly assessment of the militaries and defence economics of more than 170 countries.

Nato ‘reinvigorated’

Driven in part by Nato’s response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, global military spending grew by 9 per cent in 2022 to reach a record US$2.2 trillion (S$3 trillion), it noted.

The report comes days after White House hopeful Donald Trump said he previously told an unspecified Nato member’s leader that he would “encourage” Russia to “to do whatever the hell they want” in that country if it did not meet its Nato financial obligations.

“You got to pay. You got to pay your bills,” Trump recounted at a campaign rally in South Carolina on Feb 10.

Only 10 members of the Western-led security alliance met the group’s target of spending 2 per cent of gross domestic product on defence, although 19 of them increased spending in 2023, according to IISS figures.

“Russia’s actions have reinvigorated Nato, with Finland completing its rapid alliance accession process in April 2023,” the report noted.

“Russia’s border with Nato members is now more than 1,300km longer.”

The annual report also said Iran’s supply of missiles to Houthi rebels in Yemen and drones to Russia highlighted Teheran’s growing influence in conflict zones.

China had also demonstrated “increased power-projection capacity”, it added.

“The IISS Military Balance study is published at an important time when the rules-based order is being increasingly questioned,” said Dr Bastian Giegerich, the think-tank’s chief executive.

“While Western defence spending is rising and plans to revamp equipment are ongoing, we reflect on the challenges including those set by Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, China’s military modernisation and events in the Middle East,” he added. AFP