Fujimori poised for Peru presidential run-off but opponent still unclear

LIMA – Peru’s Keiko Fujimori is poised to advance to her fourth consecutive presidential run-off, according to initial exit polls from an April 12 election marred by such disarray that her opponent may not be clear for days.

Ms Fujimori, 50, garnered 16.6 per cent of the vote, more than any other candidate in an Ipsos exit poll. She had a similar 16.5 per cent result in an exit poll from Datum. Both polls found numerous contenders vying for the second spot in the June run-off.

The lack of a clear opponent against Ms Fujimori means it is still uncertain whether Peru’s run-off will feature two candidates from the right or become a more ideological battle with a leftist opponent.

Investors looking for a more pro-market government are likely rooting for former Lima mayor Rafael Lopez Aliaga or centre-right sociologist Jorge Nieto to make it to the second round against Ms Fujimori so they can win either way.

Peruvians voted for the first time in five years after cycling through four presidents in that span, a period marked by political volatility despite an economy that has outperformed its peers.

But the election quickly descended into confusion as many voters lined up to vote, only to find that ballots had not arrived at polling places.

Ms Fujimori is one of Peru’s most powerful politicians, and her Popular Force party has wielded significant influence in Congress even as she has fallen short of the presidency in three consecutive elections from 2011 to 2021.

She is the daughter of former leader Alberto Fujimori, who was sentenced for human rights violations and corruption before his death in 2024.

A conservative, she has promised tough-on-crime policies and is viewed positively among investors who favour her pro-market policies.

But her father’s controversial decade-long stint as president has led many Peruvians to say they would never vote for her.

Ipsos put leftist Roberto Sanchez second with 12.1 per cent, followed closely by another former Lima mayor, Mr Ricardo Belmont, with 11.8 per cent. Datum found Mr Lopez Aliaga in second with 12.8 per cent and Mr Nieto third with 11.6 per cent. 

Mr Sanchez has called for a redraft of Peru’s market-friendly Constitution, and members of his party have suggested using the central bank’s foreign reserves to fund social spending – proposals that would likely make investors nervous if he advances to the second round.

Peru exit polls have a reliable track record, although Ipsos will publish a quick count with a lower margin of error later on the evening of April 12. Both exit polls had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.

The election authorities extended voting by one hour across the country to address delays at polling sites.

The ONPE, a national body overseeing the elections, attributed the problems to a private company that had been contracted to deliver ballots but did not show up.

ONPE initially reported that just 1 per cent of polling stations had experienced delayed openings. By early afternoon, another national electoral authority said that as many as 30 per cent of polling sites had failed to open.

While 99.8 per cent sites eventually opened, roughly 63,000 voters in Lima ultimately were not able to vote, ONPE said. That estimate did not include voters who may have been deterred by delays. Voting is compulsory in the Andean nation of 35 million people.

Even before voting concluded, Mr Lopez Aliaga raised concerns about the legitimacy of the contest after many polling sites, especially in Lima, failed to open on time. 

Mr Lopez Aliaga, who has courted the conservative vote with brash tactics that echo those of US President Donald Trump, said the process had been handled as if Peru was a “banana republic”.

An outspoken critic of ONPE who has in the past called its head a “criminal,” the former Lima mayor said as many as one million voters had been disenfranchised. 

Other candidates vying to make the run-off include Mr Belmont, a TV personality and former Lima mayor who has positioned himself as someone who can court voters on both the right and left.

Leftist Sanchez is promising to free former president Pedro Castillo, who remains popular in rural parts of Peru despite having been impeached and jailed for trying to dissolve Congress in 2022. 

Mr Nieto is a centre-right candidate and former minister who has tried to court more progressive voters, especially in Lima’s upper and middle classes. 

The electoral authorities aim to count 60 per cent of the votes by midnight, although the delays are likely to complicate that goal. Ipsos will release a quick count on a sample of voting stations across Peru later in the evening of April 13.

Full official results will take days and may be challenged by losing candidates under new electoral regulations that allow recounts for the first time.

The race included a record 36 presidential candidates, while Peruvians also voted to re-establish a Senate for the first time in more than 30 years. 

The South American country is a major exporter of copper, liquefied natural gas and fruit whose economy has remained largely unscathed by the chronic political instability. BLOOMBERG