For Putin and Trump, a bromance with limits

WASHINGTON - Donald Trump has made plain his fondness for Russian leader Vladimir Putin, who has in his own way returned the favour.

But if Trump comes back to the White House, their divergent interests could still make the relationship complicated.

Ahead of Nov 5’s razor-tight election, Vice-President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, has hammered in on Trump’s long history with Mr Putin, telling a rally on Oct 29 that the Russian leader and other strongmen were “rooting” for Trump, knowing he is “easy to manipulate with flattery and favour”.

Trump has repeatedly praised Mr Putin, whose hyper-masculine style and professed attachment to traditional values has increasingly found favour among some US Christian conservatives.

At a rally in March, Trump praised Mr Putin as “smart” – yet also faulted his February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, saying that sending troops to the border had been “a hell of a way to negotiate” but that going in was a “big mistake” that did not turn out well.

The Republican tycoon nonetheless has mused that Russia will eventually win and scoffed at the billions of dollars in US assistance sent to Ukraine under President Joe Biden and Ms Harris.

Trump’s running mate, Mr J.D. Vance, has gone so far as to say he does not care what happens in Ukraine, believing that the US should focus on confronting China instead.

Trump has boasted that he can quickly end the Ukraine war, with his aides suggesting forcing Ukraine into territorial concessions by conditioning US assistance.

He has dismissed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky as a great “salesman”. When Mr Zelensky requested a meeting with Trump in September, Trump told the wartime leader how he enjoys a “very good relationship” with Mr Putin.

A new book by the investigative reporter Bob Woodward asserts that Trump and Mr Putin may have spoken as many as seven times during Mr Biden’s presidency, and that Trump while in office secretly sent the Russian leader then-scarce Covid tests.

‘Vladimir, let’s talk’

Mr Putin in September said with a wry smile that he supported Ms Harris, an endorsement believed by virtually no one.

Former president and Putin ally Dmitry Medvedev more recently hailed Trump for blaming the war on Mr Zelensky, although he cast doubt on whether the Republican would change US’ position.

“It’s clear that Trump is Russia’s preference, no matter what they say,” the Russian political expert, Mr Konstantin Kalachov said.

“Trump clearly wants to negotiate and there is no love between him and Mr Zelensky,” he said.

Trump was impeached for the first time in 2019 over delaying assistance to Ukraine as he pressed Mr Zelensky to dig up dirt on the Biden family.

In one of the most widely criticised moments of his tumultuous 2017-2021 presidency, Trump at a joint news conference appeared to take the Russian leader’s word over US intelligence assessments that Russia tried to tilt the 2016 election in his favour.

Mr Leon Aron, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, expects that Trump, if elected, would quickly seek another summit with Mr Putin.

Based on Trump’s past behaviour and statements, “I think the initial step will be some sort of very dramatic personal diplomacy – ‘Vladimir, let’s talk. We could resolve this.’”

But Mr Aron said it was less certain whether Mr Putin, whomever he prefers as US president, would budge on policy.

“Mr Putin made global opposition to the US a key to his domestic legitimacy and popularity,” Mr Aron said. “He is now proclaiming himself and his country heirs to the Soviet Union – a great superpower.”

“So that policy strategically will continue. Mr Putin cannot change it without changing his regime,” he said.

Mr Putin would gladly accept a quick Ukraine agreement if it validates seizure of land and allows Russian troops to remain.

But Trump would then face pressure from the US public, Congress and possibly his own advisers who would see him as negotiating a bad deal, Mr Aron said.

“I think his macho image would argue against essentially accepting a defeat of American interests in Ukraine.” AFP