Explainer: What’s changed in Venezuela a month after Maduro’s ouster

CARACAS – The landscape is quickly shifting in Venezuela without deposed leader Nicolas Maduro at the helm.

In the month since a deadly

US military operation

toppled the long-term president, interim leader Delcy Rodriguez has fallen in line with many of Washington’s demands while still supporting former Venezuelan leader Hugo Chavez’s leftist rhetoric.

This is what has changed for Venezuela.

Trump ties

Unlike the invasion of Iraq, Washington avoided a total break in continuity of leadership after US special forces captured Mr Maduro, opting instead to allow the country’s vice-president to assume power.

US President Donald Trump has since said he has been working “really well” with Ms Rodriguez, and the Venezuelan interim leader is expected to visit the US.

The countries have moved to

rekindle diplomatic relations

, which were severed in 2019 under Mr Maduro.

But Mr Trump has also warned Ms Rodriguez she could face a fate similar to Mr Maduro’s if she fails to act on US demands for policy reforms and access to oil.

Oil reforms

Ms Rodriguez’s interim government swiftly approved reforms to the oil industry, in what analysts have described as a law heavily influenced by Washington.

Private companies can now operate independently in the sector, instead of only as minority partners in joint ventures with the state oil company.

The new regulations also lower royalty payments and relinquish state control of exploration.

“This is the only way to obtain significant investments,” said US-based Latin America energy analyst Francisco Monaldi.

Mr Trump has also urged

US oil giants to invest in the country

– though some remain wary, citing political instability and massive costs in reviving the sector that has been marred by years of corruption and US sanctions.

In the meantime, the US government has directly seized and sold some Venezuelan oil.

Balancing act

On paper, Ms Rodriguez, previously the vice-president, is leading an interim administration of Mr Maduro’s government.

But in reality, she has introduced serious changes, including swopping out some ministers and high-ranking military officials.

Key players, like Venezuelan Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino, have remained in place.

“This is a phase of readjustment,” said Professor Guillermo Tell Aveledo at Metropolitan University in Caracas.

US rapprochement, which has included talks between Ms Rodriguez and US chief of mission Laura Dogu on the country’s “transition” comes as the government also continues to organise protests demanding Mr Maduro’s release.

Amnesty and fear

Ms Rodriguez has also

announced a general amnesty

, which is expected to be adopted by the national assembly this week.

Its scope is unclear, though non-governmental organisation Foro Penal says about 700 political prisoners remain behind bars, even as some have already been freed since Mr Maduro’s ouster.

The interim Venezuelan President has also announced the closure of the infamous Helicoide prison, where the government has been accused of torturing dissidents.

“The amnesty is more about forgetting than forgiving,” said Foro Penal’s director Alfredo Romero, who called for an end to government impunity.

The fear around political activism has diminished, but has not completely disappeared for ordinary Venezuelans who still offer their criticisms in hushed tones. There is a “tactical liberalisation”, Dr Aveledo said.

“The system is recalibrating the cost of repression.” AFP