PARIS – World coal consumption should start declining next year after peaking in 2023, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Dec 15.

The IEA’s latest forecast came after nearly 200 countries at the COP28 climate talks adopted a deal stating that the world will be “transitioning away from fossil fuels” to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050 and limit global warming.

Coal is the largest energy-related source of the carbon emissions responsible, along with other greenhouse gases, for global warming.

Scientists say the planet has already warmed by 1.2 deg C above pre-industrial levels and expect 2023 to be the hottest year on record as storms, droughts and lethal wildfires expand around the world.

Consumption of the dirtiest fossil fuel rose by 1.4 per cent in 2023 to a record 8.5 billion tonnes, as increases in China, India and Indonesia outweighed sharply falling demand in Europe and the United States, the IEA said.

“We expect to see a trend emerging of declining worldwide coal demand, starting in 2024,” the Paris-based agency said, as renewable power generation from solar and wind continues to expand.

It said consumption in China alone grew by 220 million tonnes or 4.9 per cent in 2023, while in India it grew 8 per cent and in Indonesia by 11 per cent.

Elsewhere, consumption fell by 107 million tonnes or 23 per cent in Europe, while in the United States it dropped 95 million tonnes or by 21 per cent, largely due to weakening industrial activity and an ongoing shift away from coal-fired generation towards renewables.

The IEA said it was difficult to forecast demand in Russia, currently the fourth-largest coal consumer, because of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. AFP