Why Ukraine’s Zelensky has refused to accede to Trump’s ceasefire deal

LONDON – Prospects of a ceasefire in the Ukraine war are receding after US President Donald Trump lashed out at his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelensky, accusing him of rejecting an American ceasefire compromise that would have left about a fifth of Ukraine’s territory under permanent Russian occupation.

Mr Trump’s outburst came after the

failure of diplomatic negotiations

held in London on April 23.

Writing on Truth Social, his preferred social media platform, Mr Trump accused Mr Zelensky of engaging in “inflammatory statements” that allegedly “make it so difficult to settle this war”.

The harsh public criticism signals a potential new low in US-Ukrainian relations, where Mr Trump has consistently argued that it is up to Ukraine – and not Russia, which unleashed the war by invading Ukraine – to offer most of the concessions.

Washington’s tilt towards Moscow is likely to be boosted as Mr Steven Witkoff, Mr Trump’s special envoy, meets Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on April 25, the fourth such high-level encounter between the two in as many weeks.

The abrupt downturn in US-Ukrainian relations has surprised diplomatic observers, since US negotiators recently claimed to have taken greater account of Ukraine’s concerns.

At

talks hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron

in Paris on April 17, Mr Witkoff met Ukrainian negotiators for the first time.

The Americans argued that their latest ceasefire proposals were carefully balanced to appease Russia and Ukraine.

According to the current US plan – which was not published but leaked to several media networks – the Americans promised that if Russian troops stop fighting, the US would recognise the legality of Russia’s possession of Crimea, a Ukrainian peninsula occupied by the Russians since 2014.

As part of a ceasefire deal, Ukraine would also have to accept Moscow’s control over four other regions occupied by the Russian troops that

invaded Ukraine in February 2022

– the territories in the Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhia regions – altogether totalling around 20 per cent of Ukraine’s pre-war territory.

Western sanctions on Russia’s ability to export oil, gas and other raw materials would also be lifted, and the Russians would be promised that Ukraine would not become a member of Nato – the US-led military alliance in Europe – satisfying another longstanding Kremlin demand.

The Americans claim that, although harsh, their latest plan offers Ukraine several advantages.

Crimea has already been under Russian control for more than a decade, and Washington’s legal recognition of this fact should – US officials claim – be of no practical significance to Ukraine. “Nobody is asking Zelensky to recognise Crimea as Russian territory,” Mr Trump wrote in his Truth Social post.

The Americans also pointed out that while their ceasefire plan would leave Russia in control of large chunks of additional Ukrainian territory, the Russians would be required to give reassurances that the Dnieper River – a major local waterway that borders Russian-occupied territory – would remain available to Ukrainian shipping.

In addition, the US argues that Ukraine will still be free to join the European Union and boost its military to repel any future Russian attack.

The plan also includes an American promise to operate Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant – one of the world’s 10 largest nuclear facilities and currently under Russian occupation – and a raw materials mining agreement between the US and Ukraine.

The American proposals unveiled in Paris on April 17 were supposed to be concluded with the Ukrainians during a London meeting on April 23.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio planned to accompany Mr Witkoff to the London talks, where Mr Zelensky was expected to sign off on the deal.

But at the last moment, Mr Rubio and Mr Witkoff cancelled their participation.

US diplomats blamed “logistical reasons” for the abrupt cancellation of their bosses’ arrival in London. But that was just an excuse; Mr Trump’s envoys did not wish to travel to London to receive Ukraine’s rejection of their proposals.

Mr Zelensky has rejected the argument that the US plan is equally harsh on both warring parties. He points out that Russia was hardly required to compromise, especially on territorial issues – all the Russians were asked to do was abandon their initial goal of conquering Ukraine’s entire territory.

Nor can the Ukrainian leader sign up for a deal that implies – even if indirectly – that Crimea will be recognised as Russian territory. “There’s nothing to talk about here. This is against our Constitution,” he said on April 23.

On this topic, the Ukrainians enjoy the full backing of the Europeans. Ms Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s top diplomat, has vowed that the bloc “will never recognise” the Crimea peninsula as part of the Russian Federation.

But probably what the Ukrainians dislike most is that the US continues to refuse to offer Ukraine any security guarantees against future Russian aggression. At the same time, Mr Trump persistently blames Ukraine for a war that began with Russia’s invasion.

Be that as it may, Mr Putin is sure to benefit from the present turn of events.

The deal offered by the Americans does not satisfy Russia’s ultimate plan, which is to sign a ceasefire only once Ukraine is both broken and abandoned by its allies and, therefore, ripe for collapse at a later date.

But Mr Putin no longer has to say “no” to the Americans – the Ukrainians did it for him.

There is considerable confusion over what happens now.

The White House has threatened that Mr Trump would walk away from any Ukraine mediation if its latest proposal is not accepted.

“The President is frustrated,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters after the failure of the London talks on April 23. “His patience is running very thin,” she added.

But the US leader did not rule out the possibility that he may talk to his Ukrainian counterpart on the margins of the funeral of Pope Francis, scheduled to be held in Italy on April 26.

Meanwhile, Russia resumed its missile attacks on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv, killing scores of civilians.

Not that Mr Trump noticed. He continues to blame Ukraine for the fighting.