Why Macron’s China visit and Putin’s India trip will show Europe no longer sets the agenda

LONDON – Two European leaders are visiting major Asian nations this week.

French President Emmanuel Macron is now on a three-day tour of China, while Russian President Vladimir Putin is scheduled

to arrive in India for a two-day visit on Dec 4.

Both presidents hope to bolster their nations’ precarious global trade positions. And both of them are also seeking Asia’s support for their respective stances on the war in Ukraine.

Yet, although they are guaranteed a friendly reception and plenty of good banquets, neither Mr Macron nor Mr Putin is likely to return home with more than just lukewarm reassurances.

The French President’s current visit to China is his fourth since he came to power in 2017 and, at least according to the official view in Paris, also his grandest.

As leaders of many other countries have discovered, securing even a one-hour meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping is far from easy. But he appears to have been very generous with the time he is granting the visiting French President.

Apart from meetings in Beijing, Mr Xi will accompany Mr Macron on a visit to the Sichuan capital of Chengdu, an honour rarely granted.

Still, Le Monde, one of France’s top daily newspapers, quoted diplomatic sources in Paris as claiming that Mr Macron “is going to China without great illusions about his ability to influence Beijing’s position on Ukraine and on trade”.

European leaders have grown increasingly vocal in their criticism of China’s alleged support for Russia’s military operations in Ukraine.

European intelligence sources claim that this support – initially limited to Chinese purchases of Russian oil and gas, and the sale of Chinese goods to replace consumer items that disappeared from Russian shops as a result of Western economic sanctions – has now assumed more overt military implications.

Claims that Chinese parts are increasingly being found in Russian-manufactured weapons have increased and, in late November, London’s Financial Times newspaper alleged that military links between Beijing and Moscow are being institutionalised, with a Chinese company allegedly buying a stake in one of Russia’s largest manufacturers of military drones.

But the Chinese government, which had initially refuted such accusations and claimed to be neutral in the war between Russia and Ukraine, is no longer bothering to hide its preferences.

During

a trip to Europe in July 2025,

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi told Ms Kaja Kallas, the European Union’s top diplomat, that Beijing did not wish to see Russia defeated on the Ukraine battlefield – the most explicit admission yet that Beijing has its preferences in this conflict.

And before Mr Macron landed in Beijing for this week’s state visit, Mr Wang was pointedly in Moscow, signing a joint communique pledging that China will “continue working with Russia to fully implement the important common understandings”.

Chinese decision-makers have evidently concluded that, as much as European governments may resent Russo-Chinese relations, Europe is unlikely to do anything about it.

Both the French and their Chinese hosts know that any discussion about Ukraine is performative and devoid of any practical outcomes.

Nor is Mr Macron likely to accomplish much on trade.

While France’s trade deficit with China – standing at €47 billion (S$71 billion) in 2024 – has shrunk slightly in comparison with previous years, the deficit has doubled in a decade and the upward trend is likely to continue.

Mr Macron has tried to persuade his European colleagues to talk with one voice when they negotiate with China. Yet few have heeded this call.

This does not mean that the Chinese are underrating France.

Mr Macron’s delegation includes around 35 top French business executives, including those of Airbus, energy provider EDF and food multinational company Danone, all of whom hope to land some deals.

Beijing may also be interested in Mr Macron’s views about the current spat between China and Japan over Taiwan. During a previous trip to China in April 2023, he delighted his Chinese hosts by urging Europeans not to “follow the lead” of the US on Taiwan.

Mr Macron, who subsequently tried to retract his comments, is sure to be more tight-lipped now. So even on this sensitive topic, his visit to China is unlikely to break new ground.

The same applies to Mr Putin’s visit to India. In theory, he is on much firmer political ground: India not only continued to buy Russian oil and gas throughout the Ukraine war, but also publicly expressed its defiance of Europe’s stance in that conflict.

Before Mr Putin’s attack on Ukraine in February 2022, India sourced only 2 per cent of its crude oil from Russia. This share rose to as much as 50 per cent in the following years.

In an unusual move on the eve of Mr Putin’s arrival, the ambassadors of Britain, France and Germany to India in New Delhi penned on Dec 2 a joint article in The Times of India, accusing Russia of “not being serious about peace” in Ukraine, a move interpreted as a subtle criticism of India’s position.

The Indian government is sure to ignore such European entreaties.

Yet at the same time, the sanctions the US imposed on Russia’s largest energy companies, which came into full effect by the end of November, have already dampened India’s enthusiasm for Russian oil purchases.

These now account for less than 30 per cent of the crude received by Indian refineries, and it’s unlikely that Mr Putin will be able to reverse the downward commercial trend.

Russia remains India’s most significant military supplier. But, yet again, India’s purchases of Russian weapon platforms are in decline, partly because of Delhi’s diversification efforts and partly due to stiff competition from Western weapon manufacturers.

Although Mr Putin will try to regain the initiative in India’s defence market, his room for manoeuvre is restricted by Russia’s own desperate need for weapons as the Ukraine war drags on.

The Russians have tried to expand their markets by cosying up to Pakistan. Warmer Russia-Pakistan relations are designed to remind India that Moscow may have other options.

Yet, India’s security planners are unlikely to lose any sleep over this matter, for they are only too aware of Russia’s current weaknesses and limitations.

So both the Russian and French presidents – who are otherwise on opposing sides in Europe – are likely to return home largely empty-handed.

Europe was once a rule-maker on the global stage. It is now increasingly just a rule-taker.