Why Belarus is helping Russia in its war in Ukraine

MINSK - After breaking away from a crumbling Soviet Union in the early 1990s, Belarus became increasingly aligned with Russia, unlike its neighbours.

Those bonds strengthened with

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Long-time President Alexander Lukashenko has allowed Belarus to be used as a staging ground – and base for Russian nuclear weapons – while he avoided sending his own troops to take part in the war.

The tight embrace is payback after Russian President Vladimir Putin bankrolled his government for many years and came to Mr Lukashenko’s aid following a disputed 2020 election that

sparked a popular uprising,

repression and sanctions.

The bond was evident again in late June when Mr Lukashenko said he personally

stepped in to broker a deal

with the mutinous commander of the Russian mercenary Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, reportedly offering him sanctuary in Belarus as his forces marched towards Moscow.

Q: Why is Belarus important to Russia in the conflict?

A: The nation of 9.3 million people sits just to the north of Ukraine, and their common border is several hundred kilometres long.

Belarus’ southern territory extends close to Kyiv, which made it a useful base for Russian troops in their failed attempt to quickly capture the Ukrainian capital early in the conflict.

Belarus borders on Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, all members of the Western North Atlantic Treaty Organisation military alliance, ensuring its strategic importance for Moscow.

It’s also part of the shortest route between Russia’s mainland and Kaliningrad, an isolated Russian-held territory further west on the Baltic Sea. 

Why is Belarus helping Russia in the war? 

A: In the past, Mr Lukashenko tested Mr Putin’s patience by casting Belarus as an independent nation despite its heavy dependence on Russian energy and financial aid.

Minsk stopped short of recognising Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea, and tried to mediate in that crisis.

The relationship

began to change in 2020

when Mr Putin gained more sway over a weakened Lukashenko by supporting his crackdown on a well-organised opposition movement that threatened to topple him.

Moscow gained further leverage by

providing US$1.5 billion (S$2.03 billion) in loans

and striking preferential deals to supply oil and gas to its smaller neighbour.

Sanctions imposed on Minsk by Western governments pushed Belarus further into Russia’s arms.

Mr Putin

visited Mr Lukashenko in December 2022 in Belarus,

a rare foreign trip for the increasingly reclusive leader, underscoring how close the two had become.

Mr Lukashenko said he stepped in to broker a deal to end the Wagner uprising in June.

How about the military relationship?   

A: Russia’s army

held joint drills with Belarus

in the weeks leading up to its invasion of Ukraine. This allowed Russia to transport equipment and troops into Belarusian territory close to the Ukrainian border.

About 30,000 Russian soldiers may have been in Belarus at the time, making it the largest military build-up there since the Cold War, according to Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg.

Those forces stayed on after the drills finished, and many took part in the invasion.

A few days into the war, Belarus scrapped its neutral status, giving it legal cover to host Russian troops and weapons.

In March this year, Mr Putin said Russia would station tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, while retaining control of them. Three months later, he said the first had been delivered.

(Belarus and two other former Soviet republics, Ukraine and Kazakhstan, agreed in 1994 to give nuclear weapons stationed on their soil to Russia in return for security assurances.)

Russia also sent Iskander short-range missiles – capable of carrying nuclear warheads – and the S-400 air defence missile system. It also has positioned MiG fighter jets capable of carrying hypersonic weapons in the country. 

How are Russia’s adversaries treating Belarus?

A: To punish the Minsk government for its involvement in the conflict, Russia’s adversaries tightened the sanctions imposed after Mr Lukashenko’s post-election crackdown.

The European Union blocked exports of goods and technology that could be used by the Belarus military.

Financial penalties imposed on Russia by the United States and the United Kingdom following the invasion were also applied to Belarus, while the EU targeted Belarusian individuals helping in the Russian war effort.

EU members Poland and Lithuania, which have offered shelter to opposition figures from Belarus, accused Mr Lukashenko of retaliating by channelling thousands of migrants, many from the Middle East, across their border. 

Are the sanctions working?

A: They’re testing the country’s established economic model based on exporting fuels made from imported Russian oil and selling potash, a fertiliser, to major markets such as China, India and Brazil.

But they have not been enough to make Mr Lukashenko, in power since Belarus’s first presidential election as an independent republic in 1994, rethink his alliance with Mr Putin.

There were renewed protests when Mr Lukashenko allowed Russian troops to flood into Ukraine.

At least 1,500 people were arrested in the first month of the war, while some underground activists began destroying rail infrastructure, disrupting some Russian military shipments. But the 68-year-old leader has maintained his grip. BLOOMBERG