What's at stake in Hungary's parliamentary election?

BUDAPEST, March 25 - Viktor Orban, the European Union's longest-serving prime minister, could lose power in an election on April 12 after 16 years at Hungary's helm, opinion polls show.

The stakes could hardly be higher for the central European country of 9.5 million people and for the brand of right-wing populism that has won Orban both many supporters and many critics in Europe and beyond.

WHAT IS THE LEGACY ORBAN IS DEFENDING?

Orban, 62, has turned Hungary, an EU member since 2004, into a testing ground for what he calls "illiberal Christian democracy", rejecting multiculturalism and immigration, and portraying himself as a defender of traditional family values against Western liberalism.

During Europe's migrant crisis in 2015, Orban built a border fence to prevent refugees from entering Hungary illegally, boosting his popularity at home.

The four successive governments he has led since 2010 have curbed independent media and clashed with Brussels over a raft of policies including on migration, an erosion of LGBTQ+ rights, and more recently, financial aid for Ukraine.

Orban has cast the election as a stark choice between "war or peace", saying his centre-right opponent would drag Hungary into the war raging next door in Ukraine, an allegation the opposition has firmly denied.

WHY IS ORBAN'S GRIP ON POWER NOW UNDER THREAT?

Orban won the past four elections with a landslide, largely due to a fragmented and weak opposition.

However, Peter Magyar, a former loyalist, upended this status quo in 2024 with the launch of his centre-right Tisza party, which quickly surged. It has rejected alliances with any other political force, and leads most polls with a wide margin.

Magyar, 45, is especially popular with under-40s and urban voters, but his grassroots campaigning has also taken him into Fidesz's rural heartland, where support for Orban is strongest.

Tisza's surge has coincided with three years of economic stagnation, following the biggest inflation shock since the 1990s. This, along with the enrichment and excesses of oligarchs close to Orban's government, has soured public sentiment.

Magyar hopes to harness this discontent in the April election, which some pollsters say could bring record voter turnout of over 80%.

WHAT COULD CHANGE IF THE OPPOSITION WINS?

Orban, who has maintained close ties with the Kremlin despite Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, has been a driving force for right-wing populists in Europe and has become a deeply polarising figure in Brussels, most recently by blocking a 90 billion euro loan to Kyiv.

Magyar is expected to be more constructive in relations with the EU and NATO, but he won’t diverge from Orban's stance on some key issues such as the EU's Migration Pact, analysts said.

He has pledged to take strong steps to curb corruption. He also said Hungary would join the EU prosecutor's office, a step rejected by Orban.

When asked about his approach to Russia, Magyar told Reuters he would act "pragmatically".

Magyar said Tisza would boost the independence of public media and the judiciary and increase transparency in public procurement. It would also seek a two-term limit for prime ministers. He said Tisza would curb state intervention in the economy and improve public healthcare and education.

Financial markets will watch closely whether the vote produces a more pro-European government and whether Magyar - if elected - can unlock billions of euros of EU funds suspended over concerns about democratic standards under Orban.

"Magyar has pledged to tackle corruption, level the playing field in public tenders, and unlock EU funding, among other priorities. Even if delivery falls short of campaign promises, as it inevitably will, a Tisza-led government would likely boost investor confidence and shift Hungary away from its position as the EU’s black sheep," Mujtaba Rahman, Managing Director, Europe at think tank Eurasia Group said. REUTERS