US security experts say Ukraine’s abandonment of NATO goal will not alter peace talks

NEW YORK – Ukraine’s offer to forgo joining the NATO military alliance probably will not significantly change the course of peace talks, two security experts said on Dec 14.

During negotiations with US envoys ​over a potential Ukraine-Russia peace deal, President Volodymyr Zelensky on Dec 14

offered to drop Ukraine’s NATO aspirations

. Mr Zelensky had said that security guarantees from the US, Europe and others instead of ​joining ​NATO were a compromise from Ukraine.

“This doesn’t move the needle at all,” said Mr Justin Logan, director of defence and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute. “It’s an effort to appear reasonable.”

NATO membership for Ukraine has not been realistic in a long time anyway, said Mr Logan and Professor Andrew Michta, ​an expert in strategic studies at the University of Florida. Prof Michta called Ukraine’s NATO admittance a “non-issue” at this point.

There are other ways for nations to try to ensure Ukraine’s security, Mr Logan said. US President Donald Trump, in response to Mr Zelensky’s offer, may commit to the same things ​the US has already done to support Ukraine, such as sending weapons and sanctioning Russia, he added.

Not everyone dismissed Mr Zelensky’s offer. 

Mr Brett Bruen, a former foreign policy ​adviser in the Obama administration and now head of the Global Situation Room consultancy, called Ukraine’s concession “significant and substantive”.

“It’s a way for Zelensky to contrast Ukraine’s willingness for significant concessions for peace at a time when Moscow has been short on any significant concessions,” Mr Bruen said. “The question is, what did Zelensky get in return for backing off on a pretty ironclad promise to the Ukrainian people?”

Mr Bruen speculated that Mr Trump may have promised to patrol Ukraine’s skies or respond to aircraft incursions. The US may also ​increase supplies of military aid if Russia were to relaunch a large-scale military offensive, he said.

“Ukraine has got to ​hedge bets on what Trump promises, but they need more than a word,” Mr Bruen said. “They need action, some element, that is going to ensure Trump can’t easily wiggle out of these situations.” REUTERS