Ursula Von der Leyen's new term as EU chief is on the line on July 18

BRUSSELS - The EU parliament will vote on July 18 on whether to hand Ursula von der Leyen a second term running the European Commission - after a final week of wheeling and dealing to lock in the support she needs.

Although Dr von der Leyen is broadly seen clinching another five years atop the bloc’s powerful executive, the outcome of the vote - set for July 18 during the parliament’s first plenary session in the French city of Strasbourg - is not certain.

“It’s a vote, a secret ballot, so we don’t know who might betray or fail to respect commitments,” noted Ms Pascale Joannin, head of the Brussels-based Robert Schuman Foundation, a think-tank.

To secure the mandate, the polyglot German needs at least 361 votes in the 720-seat chamber constituted after EU elections held in June.

EU leaders two weeks ago formally nominated the 65-year-old Dr von der Leyen as their pick for commission chief.

Under EU treaties, the parliament has to approve their choice or reject it, in which case leaders would have one month to agree on another nominee.

Dr Von der Leyen’s conservative European People’s Party is the biggest political group in the parliament. Allied with the centre-left Socialists & Democrats and the liberal Renew Europe groups, it is expected to have the numbers to meet the 361-vote threshold.

A fraction of lawmakers from those groups may well vote against her - but she hopes some in other factions will make up the difference, notably in the Greens group and also in the far-right European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), whose Czech MEPs have already said they back her.

Challenges ahead

Horse-trading in the newly constituted parliament over recent days has laid the groundwork for buy-in from other groups, with the roles of deputy speakers and chairs for various influential committees being carefully carved up to reflect comparative weight.

One key question is whether the far-right - which all together holds a quarter of seats in the new parliament - can lay claim to a share of the posts at stake.

Mainstream parties appeared willing to grant some leeway to the ECR, dominated by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s post-fascist Brothers for Italy party.

But centrists were set to draw a line at two other far-right groups seen as more extreme, and more eurosceptic.

Those are the Patriots for Europe, created by Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban and in which France’s National Rally holds sway, and a just-launched Europe of Sovereign Nations, a smaller camp that includes Germany’s AfD and France’s Reconquete and seen as politically radioactive.

The next commission chief, once confirmed, has the immediate task of forming a “college” of commissioners responsible for various portfolios.

Traditionally, one commissioner is drawn from each of the EU’s 27 member states - counting also the commission president - and Dr von der Leyen in her past mandate strived for gender balance.

Afterwards, the big challenges facing the incoming European Commission will be how to steer Europe in a more volatile, more fractured world.

Russia’s ongoing war in Ukraine, rising trade tensions with China, violence in the Middle East, irregular immigration, lacklustre economic growth, and the prospect of Donald Trump returning to the US White House with nationalist policies will occupy much of its energy.

EU leaders have already tapped former Portuguese prime minister Antonio Costa to take over as European Council president - which is not subject to a parliamentary confirmation - and current Estonian premier Kaja Kallas as their choice for next EU foreign policy supremo.

Ms Kallas’ nomination will be put to a vote, along with the full lineup of commissioners, following parliament hearings later in 2024. AFP