Ukrainians prepare for a long war. Will the West stay the course?
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Members of Ukraine's National Guard Omega Special Purpose unit firing a mortar towards Russian troops in the front-line town of Avdiivka.
PHOTO: REUTERS
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KYIV – Mr Oleksii Tilnenko hoped this would be the year Ukraine drove Russian forces out of swathes of occupied land. As 2023 draws to a close, his southern home town of Kherson is still being pounded by shelling and the front line has barely budged.
Mr Tilnenko, who fled Kherson in 2022 and lives in Kyiv where he helps internally displaced people, believes Russia is racing to rebuild its much larger armed forces to step up its war effort.
“The hope is the West can somehow mobilise, somehow fire up its defence industry to renew equipment and produce what’s needed to defend our ordinary citizens,” said the 36-year-old.
More than 21 months into the biggest conflict in Europe since World War II, fighting rages with no end in sight, and neither side has landed a telling blow on the battlefield.
Ukrainian soldiers, living in freezing trenches, acknowledge they are exhausted going into a second winter of full-scale war
Ukrainians know they must secure Western military aid to carry on – and that it will be harder with the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza distracting global attention.
Russian troops, who occupy about 17.5 per cent of Ukraine, are again on the offensive in the east after largely withstanding a Ukrainian counter-offensive that was unable to punch through sprawling defensive lines in the south and east.
The darkening outlook contrasts starkly with Kyiv’s buoyant mood a year ago, after Ukrainians defied expectations by beating back Russian troops around their capital before recapturing territory in the north-east and south
Why it matters
The toll keeps mounting in a war that has already killed or wounded hundreds of thousands of people, destroyed Ukrainian cities, towns and villages, forced millions from their homes and placed hundreds of thousands more under occupation.
Drone and missile strikes are a part of daily life. In the north-eastern city of Kharkiv, schools are being built underground,
Mr Tilnenko heads Crimea SOS, a group that helps Ukraine’s five million internally displaced people. He says he has no plans to return to Kherson because of the constant threat from artillery and guided aerial bombs.
He feels Western military aid should have come faster, in larger volumes and in a less piecemeal fashion. Air power vital for the counter-offensive, he says, was sorely lacking in 2023, and promised F-16 fighter jets have not been delivered.
The passage of vital military and financial assistance from the West is no longer happening smoothly.
US President Joe Biden has made a Ukrainian victory a foreign policy goal as he campaigns for re-election in November 2024. But the fate of a US$60 billion (S$80.4 billion) aid package proposed by Mr Biden is uncertain because of opposition by some Republicans.
A separate, four-year €20 billion (S$28.9 billion) European Union military aid proposal has also run into resistance from some bloc members.
The lack of significant Ukrainian headway on the battlefield in 2023 could also hurt Mr Biden politically in an election that could see a comeback by former president Donald Trump, who called on Congress this summer to withhold aid to Ukraine.
What it means for 2024
Some Ukrainians, including Mr Tilnenko, believe Russian President Vladimir Putin will use any let-up in fighting to build further defences and regenerate the Russian army for a new assault.
Mr Putin may feel he can escalate Russia’s war effort further once, as expected, he has secured another six-year term in the Kremlin in an election next March.
Ukraine was also due to hold a presidential election in March, but this will not happen because of martial law.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in November put an end to speculation that a workaround would be found, saying now was “not the time” for an election.
The strain of the war is likely to weigh on society and the political landscape over the coming year.
Reforms under way to make army recruitment and conscription more efficient illustrate the sensitive but important issues the government must navigate.
Mr Tilnenko says war fatigue is a fact of life.
“Everyone’s tired. The soldiers are tired, victims are tired, the internally displaced people are tired. But there’s no way out. We can’t just give up and say ‘OK, fine’.
“At the very least, too many people have died. We hope it’ll get easier. And we’ll see how it goes.” REUTERS
